4 ms·
The interest rate is low because, as you correctly say, Fed uses infinite money from printing press to make it so. In other words, foreign and domestic actors a
by fuoqi 6y ago
The interest rate is low because, as you correctly say, Fed uses infinite money from printing press to make it so. In other words, foreign and domestic actors already don't want to buy those bonds at the current rate, which is precisely the early stages of the process I've tried to describe in the previous message. It's just that they haven't started actively selling assets nominated in $. Yet. (Well, apart from Russia, which has significantly reduced amount of US bonds in its reserves)
Normally, printing money in such fashion (I hope we agree that Fed + government does essentially that today? MMT proponents just propose to make this process honest and transparent) would increase inflation, but in 08 this inflation got mostly "exported" into foreign countries and today, as I've said, it's compensated by low money velocity (see the Fisher equation). Money velocity was steadily dropping for many years and it's another serious indicator of structural problems of modern economy (one can view it as one of the consequences of the rising wealth inequality). But the main problem in my opinion is that I doubt that Fed will be able to drain liquidity fast enough when velocity starts to rise, which may launch all the described positive feedback forces, thus making situation geometrically worse.
A free lunch can not be infinite, one day you will have to pay. The scenario which I've described is just one possibility of how the current system may crumble.