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> I wonder what sort of progress would smooth over the extraordinary credit injection we've seen in 2020. A successful Mars colony, obviously :) Gaining a seco

> I wonder what sort of progress would smooth over the extraordinary credit injection we've seen in 2020. A successful Mars colony, obviously :) Gaining a second planet might possibly justify this level of credit.

ardy42 6y ago
>> I wonder what sort of progress would smooth over the extraordinary credit injection we've seen in 2020. > A successful Mars colony, obviously :) Gaining a second planet might possibly justify this level of credit. I'm not so sure. From the perspective of Earth economics, a Mars colony may be no different from a massive, useless boondoggle. The colony would obviously consume massive amounts of Earth resources, but what products and services would it provide Earth in return and is the production of those things on Mars economically justifiable?
- roosterdawn 6y ago
  One way to rephrase your question would be to take a look at the sum total of commodities markets, specifically the subset that includes natural resources (specifically precious metals) mineable on mars. How much of that market is bottlenecked by supply? You can apply this approach to more complex commodities to theorize about the upper limits, but I think this is a good way to get started.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > specifically the subset that includes natural resources (specifically precious metals) mineable on mars. How much of that market is bottlenecked by supply? IIRC, mining on Mars for export to Earth doesn't make much sense vs mining on an asteroid, since you're paying for transport through an extra gravity well.
- ta17711771 6y ago
  Space porn.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    I'm reminded of A Canticle for Leibowitz: space colonies were built for nationalistic reasons, and none of the promised economic benefits to their founder nations ever materialized. The only good they did was act as a lifeboat for humanity after the people on Earth destroyed themselves in a second nuclear holocaust.
    - ta17711771 6y ago
      Why do you think Bezos and Musk want to be in control of the first colonies?! They want the first seats outta here when we fuck up big!

ardy42 6y ago

>> I wonder what sort of progress would smooth over the extraordinary credit injection we've seen in 2020. > A successful Mars colony, obviously :) Gaining a second planet might possibly justify this level of credit. I'm not so sure. From the perspective of Earth economics, a Mars colony may be no different from a massive, useless boondoggle. The colony would obviously consume massive amounts of Earth resources, but what products and services would it provide Earth in return and is the production of those things on Mars economically justifiable?

roosterdawn 6y ago
One way to rephrase your question would be to take a look at the sum total of commodities markets, specifically the subset that includes natural resources (specifically precious metals) mineable on mars. How much of that market is bottlenecked by supply? You can apply this approach to more complex commodities to theorize about the upper limits, but I think this is a good way to get started.
- ardy42 6y ago
  > specifically the subset that includes natural resources (specifically precious metals) mineable on mars. How much of that market is bottlenecked by supply? IIRC, mining on Mars for export to Earth doesn't make much sense vs mining on an asteroid, since you're paying for transport through an extra gravity well.
ta17711771 6y ago
Space porn.
- ardy42 6y ago
  I'm reminded of A Canticle for Leibowitz: space colonies were built for nationalistic reasons, and none of the promised economic benefits to their founder nations ever materialized. The only good they did was act as a lifeboat for humanity after the people on Earth destroyed themselves in a second nuclear holocaust.
  - ta17711771 6y ago
    Why do you think Bezos and Musk want to be in control of the first colonies?! They want the first seats outta here when we fuck up big!