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As someone viewing this sociological catastrophe from afar (Australia) and who is nominally "left" on most social issues, it's clear to me that the past three y

As someone viewing this sociological catastrophe from afar (Australia) and who is nominally "left" on most social issues, it's clear to me that the past three years represents the utter failure of the American Left to understand their own country. To use a computing analogy: while the left is buggy and flawed, the right are now hackers cynically exploiting those bugs rather than filing bug reports. Society is complex and requires everyone to act with some goodwill in order for us to reason our way through challenges. But while both sides used to act like white-hat hackers ethically exposing flaws in their competitor's algorithms, the pattern is now much darker. The left is seeing flaws where they don't exist in the right, while the right is straight up exploiting the left's flaws without concern for overall system security.

vl 6y ago
The irony, of course, that in pre-Obama times situation was somewhat reverse. Notice that Trump is outsider. Establishment got too complacent and detached (first right, then left, which is mostly indistinguishable from centrist traditional right anyway) , and current right essentially is “new” right that uprooted the traditional one.
thu2111 6y ago
What flaws of the left are being exploited here? I genuinely don't see that (and I'm also viewing this catastrophe from afar). What I've seen is that since 2016 the left has gone into some sort of meltdown state, over Trump and Brexit primarily but now also Coronavirus. With a large helping of obsession with race and gender too. The right seems mostly weak and timid, constantly being deplatformed, cancelled, threatened and pushed out of institutions all over the place. If there's any exploitation of flaws going on it can't be very effective.
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  The right currently controls all three branches of governmnent in he US. (Or well maybe not Congress, but they have more control than the democrats). The right controls the major media source for most Americans (Fox news) and uses it to establish a false narrative that they're being censored when, by many accounts, the us right has shifted more and more in the direction of authoritarianism. Can you give specific examples of the ways that the American left is succeeding and the right is failing at, like, their actual policy/political goals? > Coronavirus Compare the US covid deaths per capita is in the top 10, and pretty much all of the countries doing worse than us are in a clear downswing in cases so the number of fatalities won't increase much. The US's new case rate is flat, so deaths will continue at the same rate of 750-1000 per day for the near future. And that's despite some states (Georgia and Florida for example) appearing to lie about their covid deaths, instead misattribting them as pneumonia deaths. These states, suspiciously, governed by Republicans who downplayed coronavirus and want to reopen quickly. Much of this was avoidable.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    And that's despite some states (Georgia and Florida for example) appearing to lie about their covid deaths, instead misattribting them as pneumonia deaths It's really the other way around - unusually for this type of virus governments have mandated drastic over-reporting of COVID. All kinds of deaths that have nothing to do with the virus have been reported as "died of COVID" for dubious reasons, which is how the New York Times managed to fill its front page with the names of 1000 COVID "victims", the 5th of which turned out to have been murdered. Some states describing a death as pneumonia is probably just normal medical practice re-asserting itself. Unless you're arguing that no death should ever be recorded as pneumonia (as that's an outcome of a problem, not the underlying root cause itself).
    - joshuamorton 6y ago
      It's really not. > All kinds of deaths that have nothing to do with the virus have been reported as "died of COVID" for dubious reasons, which is how the New York Times managed to fill its front page with the names of 1000 COVID "victims", the 5th of which turned out to have been murdered. This is a big right wing talking point, but isn't actually backed up by evidence. On the other hand, Georgia and Florida so far this year have reported Pneumonia deaths at something like 4x the rate of any prior year. This increase happened oddly and suddenly in early to mid April.
      - thu2111 6y ago
        There's a large amount of evidence that COVID deaths tolls are hugely inflated. Just consider the problematic of/with confusion. The average age of the deceased in most countries is over 80 i.e. greater than the average life expectancy. About 1/3rd of the excess deaths in the UK don't mention COVID anywhere on the death certificate at all. Of those that do, many of them have been reported as "caused by COVID" although when examined more closely the death certificate actually said something like "died of X, tested positive for COVID" or even "died of X, suspected COVID" where X is unrelated to the virus. This is possible due to significantly relaxed reporting standards, especially in care homes. And that's before you get into the cases just openly misattributed by the press. Georgia and Florida so far this year have reported Pneumonia deaths at something like 4x the rate of any prior year Ironically enough that's a left-wing talking point, but it's not actually backed up by evidence. In fact it's fake news. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new-theory-about-florida-coronavirus-and-pneumonia-deaths-read-this-first/ https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new... "A theory that spread on Twitter and Reddit this week insinuating Florida health officials have masked the toll of the coronavirus by labeling thousands of deaths as caused by pneumonia is not supported by facts, said experts who study morbidity statistics. Nevertheless, the idea has spread rapidly, appearing to originate with a couple of widely shared and poorly sourced screenshots. It was picked up and swallowed along partisan divisions" "In an analysis he ran for the Times using publicly available data, Andrew Noymer, a professor who studies population health and disease prevention at the University of California Irvine, did not find major discrepancies between pneumonia and influenza deaths in early 2020 compared to recent years. He found about 1,485 such deaths in 2020, which was within a few hundred of the same period in any year since 2015." The of/with confusion is highlighted in this story as a key problem: "People, [Howard, the University of Texas at San Antonio professor] said, frequently die from multiple causes. It’s hard to attribute a death to just a single reason. Some Floridians might be avoiding needed medical attention out of fear, he said, and then they could die of an untreated illness or condition like heart disease."
- sjwright 6y ago
  > What flaws of the left are being exploited here? It's impossible to elucidate in a way that wouldn't cause a left or right partisan to howl with objections, but the big one is making perfect the enemy of good. This often comes in the form of extreme purity tests and an inability to accept compromise. The left has had some past success using shaming as a weapon and now it's being used as a one-size-fits-all bludgeon to solve all of society's failings (e.g. gay rights, climate change). Trumpism is the right's immune system response to this: hence why they chose a leader whose superpower is an inability to feel shame. (Meanwhile the left spent the past three years trying to beat up Trump using shame and remain bewildered as to why it didn't work.) Another one is a massive blind spot around the idea of having the same ethics but different ethical priorities. That would take a whole book chapter to explain so I'm not even going to get into it here. But at the extreme it culminates in the left unable to comprehend the mindset of a sincere Trump supporter as anything other than a burn-the-house-down anarchist. > but now also Coronavirus. I'm sorry, but you completely lost me there. I'm in Australia where we have similar cultural norms around human contact, similar levels of population density and a distracted and not overly competent right-wing national government. Yet we got the Coronavirus under control very quickly. We're just a few steps behind New Zealand, the oft-cited COVID-19 success story. Most of the USA's astonishing failure was self-inflicted, predominantly due to a lack of prompt national leadership over containment strategy. There's no two ways about it, the USA fu_________________ed this one up so hard. The incompetence is staggering. This is the chapter of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" where the wolf actually came. This is the chapter where Trump wasn't merely pissing off the left, he actually screwed up because he was too busy pissing off the left.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    Thanks for the answer. I don't fully follow the first part though. Perfect being the enemy of the good, extreme purity tests, inability to compromise etc, I agree these are all common characteristics of the left. But how are these being exploited by the right? It's not like in the USA the Democrats make a proposal and then Trump comes back with, "but you didn't go far enough! that's a compromise, you shouldn't propose anything until it's perfect". It's not like the purity tests are being instigated by Trump. They're all self inflicted. I agree that Trump's super-power is inability to feel 'shame', at least not shame about the things his opponents want him to be ashamed of. Australia and New Zealand are not necessarily CV success stories. NZ seems to have locked down so hard and early that now it can't re-open: witness the panic over the two arrivals who were infected but not stopped. Unless they intend to stay in quarantine forever they will eventually go through the same thing as the rest of the world - really they should have been doing it now, when it's summer (a far more likely explanation for why down under isn't really badly hit given the well known effects of sunlight and vitamin D on the virus). In my view the only astonishing failure around coronavirus was the fact that society reacted at all. Deaths-wise it appears very similar to a regular flu season compressed in time somewhat, and with some more deaths added on top caused by the lockdown. Trump's response was essentially to go for federalisation and let the states do their own thing, this has worked out quite well in the sense that it makes clear the wide disparities in local leadership (and it's not like the USA could isolate itself forever either).
gizmo 6y ago
> utter failure of the American Left to understand their own country Hillary got the majority of the vote, with a considerable margin no less. BLM protests have shifted public opinion tremendously in a progressive direction and has brought systemic police abuse to the attention of people who would never encounter it personally. Public opinion on LGBTQ+ rights has also moved in the progressive direction. Young people are politically engaged and want to see real, fundamental change. This didn't just happen, this was the result of tireless activism. It's not as hopeless as you make it out to be. Unless the "utter failure of the American Left" is code for the left not being sufficiently eager to pander to people who fundamentally don't agree with them. But that's a deliberate strategy, not a failure to understand the country. I don't agree with your characterization that both sides used to act like white-hat hackers. American politics has been nasty for a long time. I recommend watching The Lee Atwater Story to see what I mean.
- sjwright 6y ago
  I'll reiterate that I'm left on all these issues. You're just wrong. The left has completely failed to shift public opinion on these matters. It's more of the same ineffective strategy of shaming. And before you cite some poll, realise that shaming IS effective at changing what people tell pollsters. Some social conservatives will publicly claim to support the current progressive issue du jour because they fear the shame of being seen as "hating black people" or "hating gay people". It's not about "pandering to people who fundamentally don't agree" it's about recognising that people can't suddenly become comfortable with gay people overnight, or as a result of shaming them for their views. What works is iterative consciousness-raising. A good example of this in mainstream left-leaning media was Amber Ruffin's police encounter anecdotes at the top of Late Night with Seth Meyers. That was powerful because it told a human story.
  - gizmo 6y ago
    People aren't asked to become comfortable with gay people overnight. The lgbtq movement has been fighting for this for over 50 years. If evidence (polls and such) can't convince you that popular support for lgbtq people and solidarity against racism is going in the right direction there is no point in having a further discussion about this.

vl 6y ago

The irony, of course, that in pre-Obama times situation was somewhat reverse. Notice that Trump is outsider. Establishment got too complacent and detached (first right, then left, which is mostly indistinguishable from centrist traditional right anyway) , and current right essentially is “new” right that uprooted the traditional one.

thu2111 6y ago

What flaws of the left are being exploited here? I genuinely don't see that (and I'm also viewing this catastrophe from afar). What I've seen is that since 2016 the left has gone into some sort of meltdown state, over Trump and Brexit primarily but now also Coronavirus. With a large helping of obsession with race and gender too. The right seems mostly weak and timid, constantly being deplatformed, cancelled, threatened and pushed out of institutions all over the place. If there's any exploitation of flaws going on it can't be very effective.

joshuamorton 6y ago
The right currently controls all three branches of governmnent in he US. (Or well maybe not Congress, but they have more control than the democrats). The right controls the major media source for most Americans (Fox news) and uses it to establish a false narrative that they're being censored when, by many accounts, the us right has shifted more and more in the direction of authoritarianism. Can you give specific examples of the ways that the American left is succeeding and the right is failing at, like, their actual policy/political goals? > Coronavirus Compare the US covid deaths per capita is in the top 10, and pretty much all of the countries doing worse than us are in a clear downswing in cases so the number of fatalities won't increase much. The US's new case rate is flat, so deaths will continue at the same rate of 750-1000 per day for the near future. And that's despite some states (Georgia and Florida for example) appearing to lie about their covid deaths, instead misattribting them as pneumonia deaths. These states, suspiciously, governed by Republicans who downplayed coronavirus and want to reopen quickly. Much of this was avoidable.
- thu2111 6y ago
  And that's despite some states (Georgia and Florida for example) appearing to lie about their covid deaths, instead misattribting them as pneumonia deaths It's really the other way around - unusually for this type of virus governments have mandated drastic over-reporting of COVID. All kinds of deaths that have nothing to do with the virus have been reported as "died of COVID" for dubious reasons, which is how the New York Times managed to fill its front page with the names of 1000 COVID "victims", the 5th of which turned out to have been murdered. Some states describing a death as pneumonia is probably just normal medical practice re-asserting itself. Unless you're arguing that no death should ever be recorded as pneumonia (as that's an outcome of a problem, not the underlying root cause itself).
  - joshuamorton 6y ago
    It's really not. > All kinds of deaths that have nothing to do with the virus have been reported as "died of COVID" for dubious reasons, which is how the New York Times managed to fill its front page with the names of 1000 COVID "victims", the 5th of which turned out to have been murdered. This is a big right wing talking point, but isn't actually backed up by evidence. On the other hand, Georgia and Florida so far this year have reported Pneumonia deaths at something like 4x the rate of any prior year. This increase happened oddly and suddenly in early to mid April.
    - thu2111 6y ago
      There's a large amount of evidence that COVID deaths tolls are hugely inflated. Just consider the problematic of/with confusion. The average age of the deceased in most countries is over 80 i.e. greater than the average life expectancy. About 1/3rd of the excess deaths in the UK don't mention COVID anywhere on the death certificate at all. Of those that do, many of them have been reported as "caused by COVID" although when examined more closely the death certificate actually said something like "died of X, tested positive for COVID" or even "died of X, suspected COVID" where X is unrelated to the virus. This is possible due to significantly relaxed reporting standards, especially in care homes. And that's before you get into the cases just openly misattributed by the press. Georgia and Florida so far this year have reported Pneumonia deaths at something like 4x the rate of any prior year Ironically enough that's a left-wing talking point, but it's not actually backed up by evidence. In fact it's fake news. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new-theory-about-florida-coronavirus-and-pneumonia-deaths-read-this-first/ https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new... "A theory that spread on Twitter and Reddit this week insinuating Florida health officials have masked the toll of the coronavirus by labeling thousands of deaths as caused by pneumonia is not supported by facts, said experts who study morbidity statistics. Nevertheless, the idea has spread rapidly, appearing to originate with a couple of widely shared and poorly sourced screenshots. It was picked up and swallowed along partisan divisions" "In an analysis he ran for the Times using publicly available data, Andrew Noymer, a professor who studies population health and disease prevention at the University of California Irvine, did not find major discrepancies between pneumonia and influenza deaths in early 2020 compared to recent years. He found about 1,485 such deaths in 2020, which was within a few hundred of the same period in any year since 2015." The of/with confusion is highlighted in this story as a key problem: "People, [Howard, the University of Texas at San Antonio professor] said, frequently die from multiple causes. It’s hard to attribute a death to just a single reason. Some Floridians might be avoiding needed medical attention out of fear, he said, and then they could die of an untreated illness or condition like heart disease."
sjwright 6y ago
> What flaws of the left are being exploited here? It's impossible to elucidate in a way that wouldn't cause a left or right partisan to howl with objections, but the big one is making perfect the enemy of good. This often comes in the form of extreme purity tests and an inability to accept compromise. The left has had some past success using shaming as a weapon and now it's being used as a one-size-fits-all bludgeon to solve all of society's failings (e.g. gay rights, climate change). Trumpism is the right's immune system response to this: hence why they chose a leader whose superpower is an inability to feel shame. (Meanwhile the left spent the past three years trying to beat up Trump using shame and remain bewildered as to why it didn't work.) Another one is a massive blind spot around the idea of having the same ethics but different ethical priorities. That would take a whole book chapter to explain so I'm not even going to get into it here. But at the extreme it culminates in the left unable to comprehend the mindset of a sincere Trump supporter as anything other than a burn-the-house-down anarchist. > but now also Coronavirus. I'm sorry, but you completely lost me there. I'm in Australia where we have similar cultural norms around human contact, similar levels of population density and a distracted and not overly competent right-wing national government. Yet we got the Coronavirus under control very quickly. We're just a few steps behind New Zealand, the oft-cited COVID-19 success story. Most of the USA's astonishing failure was self-inflicted, predominantly due to a lack of prompt national leadership over containment strategy. There's no two ways about it, the USA fu_________________ed this one up so hard. The incompetence is staggering. This is the chapter of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" where the wolf actually came. This is the chapter where Trump wasn't merely pissing off the left, he actually screwed up because he was too busy pissing off the left.
- thu2111 6y ago
  Thanks for the answer. I don't fully follow the first part though. Perfect being the enemy of the good, extreme purity tests, inability to compromise etc, I agree these are all common characteristics of the left. But how are these being exploited by the right? It's not like in the USA the Democrats make a proposal and then Trump comes back with, "but you didn't go far enough! that's a compromise, you shouldn't propose anything until it's perfect". It's not like the purity tests are being instigated by Trump. They're all self inflicted. I agree that Trump's super-power is inability to feel 'shame', at least not shame about the things his opponents want him to be ashamed of. Australia and New Zealand are not necessarily CV success stories. NZ seems to have locked down so hard and early that now it can't re-open: witness the panic over the two arrivals who were infected but not stopped. Unless they intend to stay in quarantine forever they will eventually go through the same thing as the rest of the world - really they should have been doing it now, when it's summer (a far more likely explanation for why down under isn't really badly hit given the well known effects of sunlight and vitamin D on the virus). In my view the only astonishing failure around coronavirus was the fact that society reacted at all. Deaths-wise it appears very similar to a regular flu season compressed in time somewhat, and with some more deaths added on top caused by the lockdown. Trump's response was essentially to go for federalisation and let the states do their own thing, this has worked out quite well in the sense that it makes clear the wide disparities in local leadership (and it's not like the USA could isolate itself forever either).

gizmo 6y ago

> utter failure of the American Left to understand their own country Hillary got the majority of the vote, with a considerable margin no less. BLM protests have shifted public opinion tremendously in a progressive direction and has brought systemic police abuse to the attention of people who would never encounter it personally. Public opinion on LGBTQ+ rights has also moved in the progressive direction. Young people are politically engaged and want to see real, fundamental change. This didn't just happen, this was the result of tireless activism. It's not as hopeless as you make it out to be. Unless the "utter failure of the American Left" is code for the left not being sufficiently eager to pander to people who fundamentally don't agree with them. But that's a deliberate strategy, not a failure to understand the country. I don't agree with your characterization that both sides used to act like white-hat hackers. American politics has been nasty for a long time. I recommend watching The Lee Atwater Story to see what I mean.

sjwright 6y ago
I'll reiterate that I'm left on all these issues. You're just wrong. The left has completely failed to shift public opinion on these matters. It's more of the same ineffective strategy of shaming. And before you cite some poll, realise that shaming IS effective at changing what people tell pollsters. Some social conservatives will publicly claim to support the current progressive issue du jour because they fear the shame of being seen as "hating black people" or "hating gay people". It's not about "pandering to people who fundamentally don't agree" it's about recognising that people can't suddenly become comfortable with gay people overnight, or as a result of shaming them for their views. What works is iterative consciousness-raising. A good example of this in mainstream left-leaning media was Amber Ruffin's police encounter anecdotes at the top of Late Night with Seth Meyers. That was powerful because it told a human story.
- gizmo 6y ago
  People aren't asked to become comfortable with gay people overnight. The lgbtq movement has been fighting for this for over 50 years. If evidence (polls and such) can't convince you that popular support for lgbtq people and solidarity against racism is going in the right direction there is no point in having a further discussion about this.