Something many alcoholics and nearly all non-alcoholics have in common is they deny being alcoholics. P(Alcoholism|Denial of Alcoholism) = P(Denial of Alcoholi

Something many alcoholics and nearly all non-alcoholics have in common is they deny being alcoholics. P(Alcoholism|Denial of Alcoholism) = P(Denial of Alcoholism|Alcoholism) * P(Alcoholism) / P(Denial of Alcoholism) Pop in any reasonable numbers for those terms and it becomes readily apparent that denial of alcoholism does not constitute meaningful evidence of alcoholism.