5 ms·

UBI somehow is realized after a disaster. Interesting to see what economic impact will be in one or two years.

by ww520 6y ago

identity0 6y ago
The CERB is all the downsides and expenses of UBI without any of the benefits---no incentive to find work, bureaucracy hell, Canada has to worry about and invesigate fraud, doesn't help poor workers working minimum wage jobs (which are almost all essential)
- notatoad 6y ago
  >bureaucracy hell Not sure how you figure this. It's a pretty painless application process and everybody is getting approved.
  - tenpies 6y ago
    Yes, they've made it highly abusable and pretended this was a "feature", then backloaded all the bureaucracy into the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) who will have to determine how many millions of people received aid when they didn't qualify. It would honestly be better if they just said "free money for everyone, just click here" because the CRA will now have to spend the next decade trying to collect fraudulent benefits. The cost of the entire program would probably be 25% higher if you factor in what this will cost to audit and attempt to collect from fraudulent claimants in the future, plus the lawsuits from tax payers because Canadian leaders literally instructed people to just claim it even if they didn't qualify.
    - jeromegv 6y ago
      No Canadian political leaders instructed people to claim it when they don't qualify.
- lwansbrough 6y ago
  Ah yes, total bureaucratic hell having to spend a total of 30 seconds to sign into the CERB site and confirm your eligibility, then receive payment directly into your bank account in 2 days.
  - clusterfish 6y ago
    Either they will thoroughly review everyone's eligibility post factum, which will be pretty close to bureaucracy hell, or they will let tons of amateur fraudsters get away with free money. They promise the former but my money is on the worst-of-both-world combination. That's not how UBI is supposed to work at all. Regardless of how it turns out, the middle class will end up paying for it as the effective tax burden on the 0.1% remains untouchable. I hope everyone's enjoying their vacations, at least it's a nice summer.
jariel 6y ago
The impact on the debt is already quite shocking, nobody is talking about it 'because pandemic' but it's going to be a really, really long and ugly hangover. For everyone.
- giantDinosaur 6y ago
  Just quintuple (or by some far greater factor) skilled immigration after the pandemic; Canada will still be incredibly attractive to people from around the globe. It's one of the countries I'd be least worried about.
  - clusterfish 6y ago
    And the skilled jobs those immigrants are supposed to fill will materialize from thin air? There won't be a skilled labour shortage in Canada after the pandemic, quite the opposite - high unemployment as businesses fail to recover - is much more likely. You can't just throw immigrants at every problem.
    - giantDinosaur 6y ago
      Longer term. Immediately immigration is literally impossible with borders closed. And no, you can't solve every problem with immigration, I just wouldn't be worried about Canada 5 years from now and one of the reasons is it'll probably be able to afford some of the best talent on the planet, if it invests well.
      - jariel 6y ago
        Canada does not attract talent, it attracts workers. The USA attracts talent, and workers. Those that can't get into the US but get into Canada and are reasonably talented, who don't have family ties - eventually go to the US. Two of my staffers, one from India, one from Jordan, just did this. For them, Canada was a temporary layover for a few years until they could go stateside. Canadian wages are considerably lower than the US for 'talent' so generally, people prefer to go to the US. Canada doesn't have very many true product, engineering, design jobs wherein the outputs are developed on an international scale, not a lot of things are really 'made here'. On the high end - Canada imports doctors, software folks to do CRUD, ane engineers that never get to do engineering. One specialization is teaching and research for University, some number of profs are brought in. But mostly - it's people with education who will never get to use it, and a lot of people to work in retail, coffee shops and Long Term Care homes. Edit: after reading, this sounds very cynical! Although it is to some extent. Migrants to Canada in the economic class generally have education, like a Uni degree, though this is an only necessary one in the family, not necessarily the spouse, parents, obviously not the kids. Skills are often not very transferrable, and there are surprisingly few jobs wherein one can jump right in with 'technical knowledge' of some kind and Canada does not have the high-tech industrial base to support the need - Canada is almost last among OECD nations in terms of R&D investment, not because of the lack of R&D among individual companies, rather, the lack of the kinds of companies that actually do R&D. The Uni system is very good, tons of good research, but the commercial bits don't happen in Canada.
coronadisaster 6y ago
Do you think the housing market will crash or further bubble in the US?
- pingyong 6y ago
  The housing market will never, ever crash again in any western country unless there's an economic turn that is incomparable to even what a 10 times more deadly COVID-19 could do.
- ww520 6y ago
  Modern day housing market is largely based on interest rate since most people finance their home purchase with mortgage. Just raise the mortgage rate 3 to 4 percentage and you will crash the housing market.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
nayuki 6y ago
CERB is most definitely not a UBI. https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/cerb-application.html https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/cerb-applicati... The Benefit is available to workers: * Who have stopped working because of reasons related to COVID-19 or are eligible for Employment Insurance regular or sickness benefits or have exhausted their Employment Insurance regular benefits or Employment Insurance fishing benefits between December 29, 2019 and October 3, 2020; * Who had employment and/or self-employment income of at least $5,000 in 2019 or in the 12 months prior to the date of their application; and * Who have not quit their job voluntarily. Because it's not a UBI and government programs have the tendency to multiply like rabbits, we also get the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB) and Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) to cover different groups.

UBI somehow is realized after a disaster. Interesting to see what economic impact will be in one or two years.

by ww520 6y ago

UBI somehow is realized after a disaster. Interesting to see what economic impact will be in one or two years.

The CERB is all the downsides and expenses of UBI without any of the benefits---no incentive to find work, bureaucracy hell, Canada has to worry about and invesigate fraud, doesn't help poor workers working minimum wage jobs (which are almost all essential)

notatoad 6y ago
>bureaucracy hell Not sure how you figure this. It's a pretty painless application process and everybody is getting approved.
- tenpies 6y ago
  Yes, they've made it highly abusable and pretended this was a "feature", then backloaded all the bureaucracy into the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) who will have to determine how many millions of people received aid when they didn't qualify. It would honestly be better if they just said "free money for everyone, just click here" because the CRA will now have to spend the next decade trying to collect fraudulent benefits. The cost of the entire program would probably be 25% higher if you factor in what this will cost to audit and attempt to collect from fraudulent claimants in the future, plus the lawsuits from tax payers because Canadian leaders literally instructed people to just claim it even if they didn't qualify.
  - jeromegv 6y ago
    No Canadian political leaders instructed people to claim it when they don't qualify.
lwansbrough 6y ago
Ah yes, total bureaucratic hell having to spend a total of 30 seconds to sign into the CERB site and confirm your eligibility, then receive payment directly into your bank account in 2 days.
- clusterfish 6y ago
  Either they will thoroughly review everyone's eligibility post factum, which will be pretty close to bureaucracy hell, or they will let tons of amateur fraudsters get away with free money. They promise the former but my money is on the worst-of-both-world combination. That's not how UBI is supposed to work at all. Regardless of how it turns out, the middle class will end up paying for it as the effective tax burden on the 0.1% remains untouchable. I hope everyone's enjoying their vacations, at least it's a nice summer.

jariel 6y ago

The impact on the debt is already quite shocking, nobody is talking about it 'because pandemic' but it's going to be a really, really long and ugly hangover. For everyone.

giantDinosaur 6y ago
Just quintuple (or by some far greater factor) skilled immigration after the pandemic; Canada will still be incredibly attractive to people from around the globe. It's one of the countries I'd be least worried about.
- clusterfish 6y ago
  And the skilled jobs those immigrants are supposed to fill will materialize from thin air? There won't be a skilled labour shortage in Canada after the pandemic, quite the opposite - high unemployment as businesses fail to recover - is much more likely. You can't just throw immigrants at every problem.
  - giantDinosaur 6y ago
    Longer term. Immediately immigration is literally impossible with borders closed. And no, you can't solve every problem with immigration, I just wouldn't be worried about Canada 5 years from now and one of the reasons is it'll probably be able to afford some of the best talent on the planet, if it invests well.
    - jariel 6y ago
      Canada does not attract talent, it attracts workers. The USA attracts talent, and workers. Those that can't get into the US but get into Canada and are reasonably talented, who don't have family ties - eventually go to the US. Two of my staffers, one from India, one from Jordan, just did this. For them, Canada was a temporary layover for a few years until they could go stateside. Canadian wages are considerably lower than the US for 'talent' so generally, people prefer to go to the US. Canada doesn't have very many true product, engineering, design jobs wherein the outputs are developed on an international scale, not a lot of things are really 'made here'. On the high end - Canada imports doctors, software folks to do CRUD, ane engineers that never get to do engineering. One specialization is teaching and research for University, some number of profs are brought in. But mostly - it's people with education who will never get to use it, and a lot of people to work in retail, coffee shops and Long Term Care homes. Edit: after reading, this sounds very cynical! Although it is to some extent. Migrants to Canada in the economic class generally have education, like a Uni degree, though this is an only necessary one in the family, not necessarily the spouse, parents, obviously not the kids. Skills are often not very transferrable, and there are surprisingly few jobs wherein one can jump right in with 'technical knowledge' of some kind and Canada does not have the high-tech industrial base to support the need - Canada is almost last among OECD nations in terms of R&D investment, not because of the lack of R&D among individual companies, rather, the lack of the kinds of companies that actually do R&D. The Uni system is very good, tons of good research, but the commercial bits don't happen in Canada.

coronadisaster 6y ago

Do you think the housing market will crash or further bubble in the US?

pingyong 6y ago
The housing market will never, ever crash again in any western country unless there's an economic turn that is incomparable to even what a 10 times more deadly COVID-19 could do.
ww520 6y ago
Modern day housing market is largely based on interest rate since most people finance their home purchase with mortgage. Just raise the mortgage rate 3 to 4 percentage and you will crash the housing market.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

nayuki 6y ago

CERB is most definitely not a UBI. https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/cerb-application.html https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/cerb-applicati... The Benefit is available to workers: * Who have stopped working because of reasons related to COVID-19 or are eligible for Employment Insurance regular or sickness benefits or have exhausted their Employment Insurance regular benefits or Employment Insurance fishing benefits between December 29, 2019 and October 3, 2020; * Who had employment and/or self-employment income of at least $5,000 in 2019 or in the 12 months prior to the date of their application; and * Who have not quit their job voluntarily. Because it's not a UBI and government programs have the tendency to multiply like rabbits, we also get the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB) and Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) to cover different groups.