4 ms·

Thanks for sharing this. I think I'll experiment presenting the situation to a customer using such model as soon as I have a opportunity. Sounds good.

• bumby 6y ago
  This might be helpful: https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/741989main_Analytic%20Method%20for%20Risk%20Analysis%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/741989main_Analytic%20Method%20for%... It’s a straightforward enough primer that it can be done in Excel, including simulating the data if necessary. Even if this type of model is too simple for actual estimation, it’s a useful (and sobering) tool to help managers understand why their intuitive estimates can so often be incorrect.