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It's baffling that you are comparing the death rate that happened DURING A LONG LOCKDOWN with a non-lockdown annual flu death rate.. and acting like if we can d

by mrlala 6y ago

It's baffling that you are comparing the death rate that happened DURING A LONG LOCKDOWN with a non-lockdown annual flu death rate.. and acting like if we can drop the numbers a bit it's the same thing. Your logic is essentially saying the lockdown did nothing to reduce deaths/infection.

jeffreyrogers 6y ago
They are talking about the death rate, not the absolute number of deaths.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  I mean, that would still be wrong. IFR for flu is about 0.1% in a normal year. Most reputable estimates for the IFR for COVID are about 1%.
  - ReticentVole 6y ago
    CDC estimated it at 0.26%: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b...
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      That estimate wasn't particularly well-received, and the facts on the ground make it look especially dubious. NYC has has 17k deaths, for instance, mostly in April and early May. If you assume that _everyone_ in NYC has been infected, that would be an IFR of 0.2%. An antibody survey in late April found a prevalence of about 25% in New York City, which, assuming it's accurate (huge assumption, obviously) would indicate a rate of about 0.8%.
      - guscost 6y ago
        > That estimate wasn't particularly well-received Of course not, any estimate of this number is going to be controversial because it implies that someone messed up. The "reception" from one side in an ongoing debate means precisely nothing to me. > An antibody survey in late April found a prevalence of about 25% in New York City, which, assuming it's accurate (huge assumption, obviously) Yes, fairly big assumption. I wonder if the seropositive numbers have changed since then? > NYC has... NYC has/had a lot of uncommon things that you don't mention: - Filthy subway system with horrible ventilation that is used by almost everyone many times a week. - Large proportion of residents living in apartment buildings with shared HVAC. - Public health protocols which were extremely quick to hospitalize and then intubate patients (even those without positive PCR tests). - A directive from the state government which forced nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients.

by mrlala 6y ago

jeffreyrogers 6y ago

They are talking about the death rate, not the absolute number of deaths.

rsynnott 6y ago
I mean, that would still be wrong. IFR for flu is about 0.1% in a normal year. Most reputable estimates for the IFR for COVID are about 1%.
- ReticentVole 6y ago
  CDC estimated it at 0.26%: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b...
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    That estimate wasn't particularly well-received, and the facts on the ground make it look especially dubious. NYC has has 17k deaths, for instance, mostly in April and early May. If you assume that _everyone_ in NYC has been infected, that would be an IFR of 0.2%. An antibody survey in late April found a prevalence of about 25% in New York City, which, assuming it's accurate (huge assumption, obviously) would indicate a rate of about 0.8%.
    - guscost 6y ago
      > That estimate wasn't particularly well-received Of course not, any estimate of this number is going to be controversial because it implies that someone messed up. The "reception" from one side in an ongoing debate means precisely nothing to me. > An antibody survey in late April found a prevalence of about 25% in New York City, which, assuming it's accurate (huge assumption, obviously) Yes, fairly big assumption. I wonder if the seropositive numbers have changed since then? > NYC has... NYC has/had a lot of uncommon things that you don't mention: - Filthy subway system with horrible ventilation that is used by almost everyone many times a week. - Large proportion of residents living in apartment buildings with shared HVAC. - Public health protocols which were extremely quick to hospitalize and then intubate patients (even those without positive PCR tests). - A directive from the state government which forced nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients.