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This is a good post, but there is the risk of survivorship bias here. Drew Houston is a brilliant guy, but let's be honest most people only recognized his true

by nadam 16y ago

This is a good post, but there is the risk of survivorship bias here. Drew Houston is a brilliant guy, but let's be honest most people only recognized his true brilliance after he became successful. (I think most people thought he is smart, but I doubt most people thought he is brilliant before his success.) So yes, you should invest into people, but the trick is to recognize brilliance in advance. Which is brutally hard. For example recognizing technical brilliance if someone is not technical is almost impossible. I think where YC shines is not only that they try to invest into people but that they are actually quite good at recognizing brilliance. (I doubt they are perfect in this, but probably the best in the market.)

caustic 16y ago
Exactly the same thing I thought immediately after reading the article. Yeah, Drew Houston is a brilliant guy, but we would never know how brilliant were all other founders of failed startups.
revorad 16y ago
Yeah, consider this from another post from Chris in 2010: Entrepreneurs should always ask themselves “why will I succeed where others failed?” If the answer is simply “I’m doing it right” or “I’m smarter,” you are probably underestimating your antecedents, which were probably run by competent or even great entrepreneurs who did everything possible to succeed. Instead your answer should include an explanation about why the timing is right – about some fundamental changes in the world that enable the idea you are pursuing to finally succeed. http://cdixon.org/2010/11/07/timing-your-startup/ http://cdixon.org/2010/11/07/timing-your-startup/ Here Chris argues that even if he is able to recognize brilliance in advance, he wouldn't necessarily bet on them because of other external factors. So has he changed his mind in the last 5 months? The more I read about startups, the more I feel like ignoring all advice and jfdi.

by nadam 16y ago

caustic 16y ago

Exactly the same thing I thought immediately after reading the article. Yeah, Drew Houston is a brilliant guy, but we would never know how brilliant were all other founders of failed startups.

revorad 16y ago

Yeah, consider this from another post from Chris in 2010: Entrepreneurs should always ask themselves “why will I succeed where others failed?” If the answer is simply “I’m doing it right” or “I’m smarter,” you are probably underestimating your antecedents, which were probably run by competent or even great entrepreneurs who did everything possible to succeed. Instead your answer should include an explanation about why the timing is right – about some fundamental changes in the world that enable the idea you are pursuing to finally succeed. http://cdixon.org/2010/11/07/timing-your-startup/ http://cdixon.org/2010/11/07/timing-your-startup/ Here Chris argues that even if he is able to recognize brilliance in advance, he wouldn't necessarily bet on them because of other external factors. So has he changed his mind in the last 5 months? The more I read about startups, the more I feel like ignoring all advice and jfdi.