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I admit that I have very little knowledge about bond markets, but when you talk about moving away from "corrupt currencies" aren't all goverments / EU doing som

by collyw 6y ago

I admit that I have very little knowledge about bond markets, but when you talk about moving away from "corrupt currencies" aren't all goverments / EU doing something similar just now? (is China?)

H8crilA 6y ago
Everyone is in a deep trouble and trying to outprint themselves out of a problem. Even Germany (one of the best govt balance sheet country on the planet in 2019, going full Keynes and actually paying down their debts during the up phase of the cycle) may see a ratings downgrade. The CDS market is toying with this idea. We don't know which type of volatility are we going to experience, the left tail or the right tail. So far major currencies are actually strengthening (deflation) against consumer baskets, but it's early days, I think. Maybe even neither! In either case, I'm watching the bond yields (while they are still visible ;) ), various consumer inflation measures and most importantly gold. Gold will tell you what's going on.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  The thing about printing money though, is that if everybody does it, it negates a lot of the effect. That means that if you want the effect, you have to print more and more to keep up. The only other alternative is to realize that money is essentially a fictional construct that keeps capitalism moving forward, and to consider that people may not need to be slaves to some numbers in a computer system.
  - collyw 6y ago
    That was my very basic understanding of it. At which point you have to wonder when a market driven economy actually becomes a planned economy.
    - H8crilA 6y ago
      For me, and I think for many others, this is precisely the long term problem with printing: it is the exact opposite of capitalism. he whole point of capitalism is to make capital scarce, and thus necessarily rejecting certain ideas (prospectuses), prevent them from being funded. If everything gets funded/rescued - what is the point?

by collyw 6y ago

I admit that I have very little knowledge about bond markets, but when you talk about moving away from "corrupt currencies" aren't all goverments / EU doing something similar just now? (is China?)

H8crilA 6y ago

Everyone is in a deep trouble and trying to outprint themselves out of a problem. Even Germany (one of the best govt balance sheet country on the planet in 2019, going full Keynes and actually paying down their debts during the up phase of the cycle) may see a ratings downgrade. The CDS market is toying with this idea. We don't know which type of volatility are we going to experience, the left tail or the right tail. So far major currencies are actually strengthening (deflation) against consumer baskets, but it's early days, I think. Maybe even neither! In either case, I'm watching the bond yields (while they are still visible ;) ), various consumer inflation measures and most importantly gold. Gold will tell you what's going on.

pmiller2 6y ago
The thing about printing money though, is that if everybody does it, it negates a lot of the effect. That means that if you want the effect, you have to print more and more to keep up. The only other alternative is to realize that money is essentially a fictional construct that keeps capitalism moving forward, and to consider that people may not need to be slaves to some numbers in a computer system.
- collyw 6y ago
  That was my very basic understanding of it. At which point you have to wonder when a market driven economy actually becomes a planned economy.
  - H8crilA 6y ago
    For me, and I think for many others, this is precisely the long term problem with printing: it is the exact opposite of capitalism. he whole point of capitalism is to make capital scarce, and thus necessarily rejecting certain ideas (prospectuses), prevent them from being funded. If everything gets funded/rescued - what is the point?