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I totally agree that growth and gains on capital are not a given, but: 1) The world's real GDP is still going up. Or at least has been till 2019. 2) Even if i
by H8crilA 6y ago
I totally agree that growth and gains on capital are not a given, but:
1) The world's real GDP is still going up. Or at least has been till 2019.
2) Even if it was to slow down and remove prospects of gains on capital - it still doesn't mean that people will adjust quickly; you'd have to rewrite the entire concept of pensions for starters.
3) It seems to me that core rates are seriously manipulated down (interest rates, default spreads, equity discount rates); just look at ballooning of the balance sheets of pretty much everything, or look at the share of "zombie" companies, that is companies that cannot even service their interest payments.
3 is of course just an opinion, but if true will result in serious clogging of the machine with useless actors. 3 is where, I believe, things like "bullshit jobs" / "the office" come from, for example.
- toomuchtodo 6y agoAgree with your points, hard to know what the future looks like but it’s clear it’s not going to look like the past.
- H8crilA 6y agoBTW, as far as I can tell - the only thing that is still "working" is the Fourth Turning theory. It's a bold theory that many people have called bullshit, but it has worked well since the publication in the 90s. And of course matches the known pre-publication history dating up to a few centuries ago.
- pmiller2 6y agoI wouldn't call it so much BS as "lacking in testable predictions." I think of it as string theory for history, minus all the math.