I think I addressed it pretty clearly before. If a regular consumer can "reasonably" deduce (using logic, not some "illegal" insider knowledge) at the time of

I think I addressed it pretty clearly before. If a regular consumer can "reasonably" deduce (using logic, not some "illegal" insider knowledge) at the time of buying the insurance policy that the flight may be cancelled then the insurance company employing experts and very accurate statistical models can more than reasonably make the same deduction. Now since we agree that both parties deduced the flight will be cancelled but the company still went ahead and took the money for the insurance contract, this can only be fraud. The company took the money under false pretenses since they implicitly know even before the transaction that the claim is null and void under the "reasonable deduction" paragraph.