Sure, you're right (also https://www.gwern.net/Causality#overview-the-current-situation https://www.gwern.net/Causality#overview-the-current-situati... ) I'm j

Sure, you're right (also https://www.gwern.net/Causality#overview-the-current-situation https://www.gwern.net/Causality#overview-the-current-situati... ) I'm just trying to say that very few things are actually that causal in big complex systems. I'm trying to say that such issues are very likely have many-many factors, and we see an aggregate effect. And so in case of such aggregates arguing for-against them with very simple first-order reasoning is kind of useless. Because each piece of data (supporting or counter evidence) just explains a part of the big picture. So, without accounting for all data we can't really make general statements about what causes the aggregate effect that we see.