4 ms·

I would expect the problems to become both exponentially harder and exponentially more to solve as we scale down. But vice versa, using the process and knowledg

I would expect the problems to become both exponentially harder and exponentially more to solve as we scale down. But vice versa, using the process and knowledge we gain from 5 nm chips might improve the lifetime of 7 nm chips by orders of magnitude. And again using the 4/3/2 nm process knowledge we might obtain very durable 5 nm chips in a few years.

Causality1 6y ago
Is there much of a market for medium-detail processes? We have the desktop/server/workstation/smartphone market using the very smallest detail processes, with maybe some categories using the previous-generation node. Then we have the embedded market which is everything from cheap-as-dirt 350nm microcontrollers to 28nm ARM chips. Nobody really wants the five-years-ago chips, the currently 18-22nm node. They're too expensive to buy by the million and not shiny enough to compete against the newest stuff.
- ksec 6y ago
  There are plenty of market for in between 28nm to 12nm node. It is simply a natural progression between Cost, Features, Performance and Economics of Chips. Especially when they are the last few nodes before you move up to EUV. A10 / T2 used in many of the Apple Appliance are 16nm, along with dozens of WiFi, Modem, Ethernet Controller, ASIC / FPGA etc. These are easily 100M unit a year. As long as the cost benefits fits their volume they will move to next node.
- hwillis 6y ago
  ASICs?
hwillis 6y ago
> But vice versa, using the process and knowledge we gain from 5 nm chips might improve the lifetime of 7 nm chips by orders of magnitude Probably not. The problems at each scale are very different and tend not to have much overlap. Process limitations also exist regardless- say you figure out that patterning transistors at 3 nm increases lifetime in a way that is applicable to 7 nm. 7 nm still can't take advantage of it as long as it requires 3 nm scale patterning, if there is even overlapping technology. Even if it requires adding a new step, say a wafer treatment that is necessary at 3 nm but optional at 7 nm, the economic benefit from increased lifespan is probably not worth retooling the old equipment.

Causality1 6y ago

Is there much of a market for medium-detail processes? We have the desktop/server/workstation/smartphone market using the very smallest detail processes, with maybe some categories using the previous-generation node. Then we have the embedded market which is everything from cheap-as-dirt 350nm microcontrollers to 28nm ARM chips. Nobody really wants the five-years-ago chips, the currently 18-22nm node. They're too expensive to buy by the million and not shiny enough to compete against the newest stuff.

ksec 6y ago
There are plenty of market for in between 28nm to 12nm node. It is simply a natural progression between Cost, Features, Performance and Economics of Chips. Especially when they are the last few nodes before you move up to EUV. A10 / T2 used in many of the Apple Appliance are 16nm, along with dozens of WiFi, Modem, Ethernet Controller, ASIC / FPGA etc. These are easily 100M unit a year. As long as the cost benefits fits their volume they will move to next node.
hwillis 6y ago
ASICs?

hwillis 6y ago

> But vice versa, using the process and knowledge we gain from 5 nm chips might improve the lifetime of 7 nm chips by orders of magnitude Probably not. The problems at each scale are very different and tend not to have much overlap. Process limitations also exist regardless- say you figure out that patterning transistors at 3 nm increases lifetime in a way that is applicable to 7 nm. 7 nm still can't take advantage of it as long as it requires 3 nm scale patterning, if there is even overlapping technology. Even if it requires adding a new step, say a wafer treatment that is necessary at 3 nm but optional at 7 nm, the economic benefit from increased lifespan is probably not worth retooling the old equipment.