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I don’t agree with the underlying assumption, which is that the stock market was a sober, rational affair until these yahoos showed up. It has always been a cas
by draw_down 6y ago
I don’t agree with the underlying assumption, which is that the stock market was a sober, rational affair until these yahoos showed up. It has always been a casino. Nobody knows, nobody ever has known, why stocks move how they do, or when they will move.
- goblin89 6y agoAccording to NNT (Black Swan etc.), investing in stocks is in some ways even less predictable than a casino. Your possible maximum win in a casino is precisely limited (if the house did its math), while with a market a black swan can get you up in an unbounded way. However, the market as a whole tends to be stable, so that one can invest in say index funds for modest but reliable long-term growth. I might be off, but as far as I can tell the question now is whether even that stability is becoming past tense now.
- draw_down 6y agoGood point, casinos operate in the ludic realm, where probability calculations can actually mean something. Your second paragraph is just illustrating the point though- yes there are times when it can appear to make sense, just like you can get a "hot hand" in craps. They're two instances of the same thing. It's illusory, nobody ever knows what is going to happen, ever.