8 ms·

Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted technology" , tell us how is it not working over there? There are real case studie

Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted technology" , tell us how is it not working over there? There are real case studies. No need to speculate.

redis_mlc 6y ago
> Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted technology" Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with infected people. The US received 100,000 airline passengers per week directly from China (including Wuhan and Shanghai) from Dec. 10 to Jan. 31, then a stream indirectly after that via Europe and Africa. With millions of cases in the US and inadequate testing and tracing, technology isn't going to be a magic bullet. (Also, I believe the CDC wasted 6 weeks developing their own test that didn't actually work. This is documented in detail in the Frontline episode about US Patient Zero in Seattle.) This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd immunity at this point.
- blablabla123 6y ago
  > Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with infected people. Which is basically the normal mode of operation for institutions like the CDC or similar organizations in other countries like the RKI in Germany. In the past this was a very successful approach to keep really nasty diseases in check. I have read that both RKI and CDC had a difficult time to switch from contact tracing singular clusters into pandemic mode. > This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd immunity at this point. I wouldn't phrase it so negatively, there is a major pandemic every 100 years. Everybody is still doing far better than at any previous similar event. Even if things seem to devolve into chaos, that's nothing in comparison. Already the fact of omnipresent real-time news probably makes a huge difference. Even without optimal government interventions, people come up with their own precautions.
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    > I wouldn't phrase it so negatively I said herd immunity in a positive way. Since we don't have a vaccine, that's all we get this year.
    - blablabla123 6y ago
      If that would happen in any country, it would actually be quite bad because it would mean hospitals would be over capacity for a long period of time. Developing herd immunity in a controlled way, i.e. not DoS'ing hospital capacity, would take far longer.
      - redis_mlc 6y ago
        > it would actually be quite bad It is what it is. What else are you expecting to happen in the US, since we don't do adequate testing or tracing and don't have a vaccine? The level of denial on HN is really strange to see. Hope is not a strategy.
lazylizard 6y ago
There are examples of contact tracing working. Where's the examples of contact tracing not working?

Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted technology" , tell us how is it not working over there? There are real case studies. No need to speculate.

redis_mlc 6y ago

> Since "Some countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Israel have enlisted technology" Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with infected people. The US received 100,000 airline passengers per week directly from China (including Wuhan and Shanghai) from Dec. 10 to Jan. 31, then a stream indirectly after that via Europe and Africa. With millions of cases in the US and inadequate testing and tracing, technology isn't going to be a magic bullet. (Also, I believe the CDC wasted 6 weeks developing their own test that didn't actually work. This is documented in detail in the Frontline episode about US Patient Zero in Seattle.) This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd immunity at this point.

blablabla123 6y ago
> Testing and tracing works only if you're not already overwhelmed with infected people. Which is basically the normal mode of operation for institutions like the CDC or similar organizations in other countries like the RKI in Germany. In the past this was a very successful approach to keep really nasty diseases in check. I have read that both RKI and CDC had a difficult time to switch from contact tracing singular clusters into pandemic mode. > This time around, the US lost to Mother Nature, and our only hope is herd immunity at this point. I wouldn't phrase it so negatively, there is a major pandemic every 100 years. Everybody is still doing far better than at any previous similar event. Even if things seem to devolve into chaos, that's nothing in comparison. Already the fact of omnipresent real-time news probably makes a huge difference. Even without optimal government interventions, people come up with their own precautions.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > I wouldn't phrase it so negatively I said herd immunity in a positive way. Since we don't have a vaccine, that's all we get this year.
  - blablabla123 6y ago
    If that would happen in any country, it would actually be quite bad because it would mean hospitals would be over capacity for a long period of time. Developing herd immunity in a controlled way, i.e. not DoS'ing hospital capacity, would take far longer.
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      > it would actually be quite bad It is what it is. What else are you expecting to happen in the US, since we don't do adequate testing or tracing and don't have a vaccine? The level of denial on HN is really strange to see. Hope is not a strategy.

lazylizard 6y ago

There are examples of contact tracing working. Where's the examples of contact tracing not working?