4 ms·

It is indeed very surprising to see the sharp drop in Covid-19 cases in Germany. If I understand correctly, this is also not a randomized trial. I am not sure h

It is indeed very surprising to see the sharp drop in Covid-19 cases in Germany. If I understand correctly, this is also not a randomized trial. I am not sure how they constructed the "control" group here to which they are comparing. It is a synthetic group where they extrapolate cases from n-7 days where n is the day of introduction of mandatory use of masks? It is hard to not be tempted to think about several confounding variables that could have played a role in the drop that is seen, like people being more vigilant, following distance guidelines, working from home more often, the list goes on. Nevertheless, it was an interesting read.

Lewton 6y ago
> like people being more vigilant, following distance guidelines, working from home more often Germany was in “lockdown” mode (in quotes because their lockdown never actually needed to be that strict due to proactive reaction) way before requiring masks, that’s why they’re such a good case study All the things you’ve listed as potential confounding variables are much more likely to have gone in the opposite direction due to lockdown fatigue. It’s extremely unlikely that everyone suddenly got much more vigilant two months into the pandemic
- seesawtron 6y ago
  The opposite of "lockdown fatigue" could also happen where people get used to and better at carrying out the necessary restrictions and precautionary measures in their day to day life. There's just not enough hard evidence to be sure what factors would cause what effect in any un-controlled experimental setting. Nevertheless, masks don't hurt so one should go with the Pascal's wager argument.
  - kstenerud 6y ago
    No, we got massive lockdown fatigue after awhile. Cops were paroling the parks and checking id to make sure people who were together were from the same household. Everyone was grumbling and protests were becoming a thing. And then, the moment things started opening up again, half the people went all the way, also ignoring distancing and mask rules (except for in trams and stores).
  - blub 6y ago
    No, people just don't care any more, at least in my area. I think masks are only worn now in in supermarkets and doctor's practices because it's mandatory and people are not keeping distance any more, meeting friends, going out in groups, etc. If one didn't know better, it all looks like business as usual.
    - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
      It’s probably both. Half of my close family is vulnerable and so we are still taking it very seriously. Some of my neighbours have been casual about it all the way through.
- rurban 6y ago
  You didn't read the paper then. Their convincing anecdote is Jena, which ordered mandatory face masks two weeks before every one else, with dramatically good results, no new cases. The rest are the typical statistical tricks to come up with that 40% number, form the initial 3-10% effectiveness. So you need two things: A good anecdote, remember killing babies in Saudi Arabia, or military vans at night in Bergamo. And second: statistical tricks to come up with a convincing story.
  - dang 6y ago
    Please don't post flamebait.
blub 6y ago
I's be surprised if Europe doesn't get hammered by a second wave. The only hope is that the small outbreaks extinguish themselves or can be tracked and isolated, because people don't give a F any more.

Lewton 6y ago

> like people being more vigilant, following distance guidelines, working from home more often Germany was in “lockdown” mode (in quotes because their lockdown never actually needed to be that strict due to proactive reaction) way before requiring masks, that’s why they’re such a good case study All the things you’ve listed as potential confounding variables are much more likely to have gone in the opposite direction due to lockdown fatigue. It’s extremely unlikely that everyone suddenly got much more vigilant two months into the pandemic

seesawtron 6y ago
The opposite of "lockdown fatigue" could also happen where people get used to and better at carrying out the necessary restrictions and precautionary measures in their day to day life. There's just not enough hard evidence to be sure what factors would cause what effect in any un-controlled experimental setting. Nevertheless, masks don't hurt so one should go with the Pascal's wager argument.
- kstenerud 6y ago
  No, we got massive lockdown fatigue after awhile. Cops were paroling the parks and checking id to make sure people who were together were from the same household. Everyone was grumbling and protests were becoming a thing. And then, the moment things started opening up again, half the people went all the way, also ignoring distancing and mask rules (except for in trams and stores).
- blub 6y ago
  No, people just don't care any more, at least in my area. I think masks are only worn now in in supermarkets and doctor's practices because it's mandatory and people are not keeping distance any more, meeting friends, going out in groups, etc. If one didn't know better, it all looks like business as usual.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    It’s probably both. Half of my close family is vulnerable and so we are still taking it very seriously. Some of my neighbours have been casual about it all the way through.
rurban 6y ago
You didn't read the paper then. Their convincing anecdote is Jena, which ordered mandatory face masks two weeks before every one else, with dramatically good results, no new cases. The rest are the typical statistical tricks to come up with that 40% number, form the initial 3-10% effectiveness. So you need two things: A good anecdote, remember killing babies in Saudi Arabia, or military vans at night in Bergamo. And second: statistical tricks to come up with a convincing story.
- dang 6y ago
  Please don't post flamebait.

blub 6y ago

I's be surprised if Europe doesn't get hammered by a second wave. The only hope is that the small outbreaks extinguish themselves or can be tracked and isolated, because people don't give a F any more.