Reading though the comments, it strikes me as we are all talking about things at many levels of abstraction. Forecasting should work fine for tasks defined at a

Reading though the comments, it strikes me as we are all talking about things at many levels of abstraction. Forecasting should work fine for tasks defined at a fine granularity - we mostly take 5 days when we estimate 3 days. However, they fail fast when you are talking about a 6 month project. There are more variables and dependencies involved. It also seems like the author is not from US and their definition of stable team might be very different from what I have experienced :)