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The tricky thing is that it's impossible to distinguish between "accidental release" and "standard zoonotic transfer," unless you're able to track the transmiss
by scarmig 6y ago
The tricky thing is that it's impossible to distinguish between "accidental release" and "standard zoonotic transfer," unless you're able to track the transmission chain to patient zero. China could possibly do that (though it's not guaranteed), but if they did and it was clearly something that was accidentally released, obviously that's not something they'd ever announce, so it'd look exactly the same as the current "we don't know anything" state.
And all the ambiguity means any stance on accidental release vs standard zoonotic transfer is going to be driven more by politics ("China is evil!" "No it's not!") than by any empirical evidence.
- eindiran 6y agoI agree that it's effectively impossible to distinguish between the two and that any stance on the issue is going to be driven by politics; my comment was just an objection to the claim that it is a "wildly implausible conspiracy theory" that the virus was accidentally released.