The philosopher regurgitates a tired old argument that convexity always leads to bias in probabilistic assessment; and that this bias is always in the same dire

The philosopher regurgitates a tired old argument that convexity always leads to bias in probabilistic assessment; and that this bias is always in the same direction. This is why you can bet on long-shots all day long at the races and make lots of money (what are on Earth are you waiting for?). It is just possible, of course, that Taleb has confused "mean" acute fatality risk with the probability of at least one fatality. http://quantapology.blogspot.com/2011/03/nassim-taleb-has-mean-mildly-idiotic.html http://quantapology.blogspot.com/2011/03/nassim-taleb-has-me...