4 ms·

Despite the production chaos, missed deadlines, over promises and general CEO fuckwittery, Tesla is a massive success story that was in the right place at the r

by davedx 6y ago

Despite the production chaos, missed deadlines, over promises and general CEO fuckwittery, Tesla is a massive success story that was in the right place at the right time and completely changed an industry. I have huge respect for everyone who worked there and helped build it. I was a (small time) shareholder from around 2013 until last year when I happily liquidated my position and put in an order for a Model 3. I don't think anyone can really say whether this share price is justified even with all the future growth priced in. This is a company that has been at least partly responsible for some quite fundamental changes in mobility, and they're nowhere done yet. (I'm more excited about the Semi than Cybertruck). They've also helped drive the price/watt of batteries right down which is having a multitude of knock-on effects across many industries. Without Tesla, would we have seen battery powered airplanes starting to be built? Maybe we would, but they would probably be at the least more expensive. I can't wait to see what the future holds for Tesla, and despite all his shortcomings, I'm happy Musk is still in charge. This all simply would not have happened without his insane drive and determination. (Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a lot of irrational hatred for Tesla).

Traster 6y ago
Steve Jobs went on stage and announced the iPod on October 3rd 2001, they were on sale Nov 10th. He announced the iPhone Jan 2007, it was in people's hands by June. Elon Musk announced fully autonomous cars about 17 times in the last decade and sold software packages to people for it and has still hasn't delivered. I'm not sure Jobs could be any further from Musk in terms of how they manage(d)their companies.
fsloth 6y ago
"(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a lot of irrational hatred for Tesla)." Jobs was vocal in public about products they have already launched. They delivered products that were obviously best at what they were intended for. Musk is vocal about - well, apparently everything - and ICE:s are still a superior option for a large category of car owners. I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot capability years before it's actually production ready. Still, Musk is up there with Ford on a list of industrialists who made a dent in the universe in my books.
- davedx 6y ago
  > I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot capability years before it's actually production ready. Very fair! This has been a pretty spectacular overpromise. I firmly believe FSD will get here eventually but the timeframes were ridiculously off. What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla post here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and how huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are dangerous, regressive, etc. Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Even when SpaceX designed their Dragon controls in consultation with the veteran astronauts who use them, HN was convinced this was bad, and don't even mention they dared used Chromium! (Not really a Tesla specific thing using touchscreens but seems to be a very popular complaint about them here.)
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    > Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Well ... depends. Airliner FMS systems are awesome. Small planes usually have Garmin 430 and 530 GPS units, which are not touchscreen (they have side buttons), and have shitty UIs. And those eye-watering navigation database update prices ... thousands per year.
  - Silhouette 6y ago
    What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla post here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and how huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are dangerous, regressive, etc. https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-apple-carplay-when-driving https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-apple... Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Flying an aircraft is a very different experience to driving a car. The procedures, instruments and control systems are so different that I'm not sure there's really any meaningful comparison at all.
  - xkjkls 6y ago
    The timelines are ridiculously off, and they continue to release underbaked features to their beta testing customers. That's actively dangerous. As for the touchscreens, so much of that speaks to Musk's credibility. He seems to make decisions, like with Autopilot above, more for PR than for safety. I can see why people are going to be skeptical when he claims touchscreens are best for space usage/
nickik 6y ago
They miss some deadlines, but with the Model Y they were early. That is arguable the most important part. The giga factories are making pretty fast progress as well. I think the narrative that they are always late on everything is wrong. The set insane goals and most of the time they miss them, but they are still fast even in those cases. I bought stocks for the first time right in the heart of the Covid-19 crisis, Tesla is riding two massive waves of change, electrification and self-driving. It will take 10-15 years to shake out completely but I think Tesla will be the big winner of this shakeout.
TechBro8615 6y ago
The fact that the top engineers in the country want to work at Tesla should be a good sign. Any company that can hire top talent has a solid chance of outperforming its competition.
- xkjkls 6y ago
  Do top engineers work for Tesla? I see them having great recruiting from the university pipeline, but fresh-faced Eng School graduates are a very different population than the best engineers. You hear so much about Tesla's work culture that seems to discourage older people or people with families from working there.
seesaw 6y ago
“(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a lot of irrational hatred for Tesla)” You do need some with the personality of Musk to take on the current automobile industry. But this also means Musk needs to be always in the news with a lot of unfulfilled claims: https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
xkjkls 6y ago
Steve Jobs always did exactly as he said he was going to do. Musk doesn't. Self-driving, solar roofs, Semis, Robotaxis, profitability, buyouts, mars missions -- Musk has made enough false claims to write a book.

by davedx 6y ago

Traster 6y ago

Steve Jobs went on stage and announced the iPod on October 3rd 2001, they were on sale Nov 10th. He announced the iPhone Jan 2007, it was in people's hands by June. Elon Musk announced fully autonomous cars about 17 times in the last decade and sold software packages to people for it and has still hasn't delivered. I'm not sure Jobs could be any further from Musk in terms of how they manage(d)their companies.

fsloth 6y ago

"(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a lot of irrational hatred for Tesla)." Jobs was vocal in public about products they have already launched. They delivered products that were obviously best at what they were intended for. Musk is vocal about - well, apparently everything - and ICE:s are still a superior option for a large category of car owners. I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot capability years before it's actually production ready. Still, Musk is up there with Ford on a list of industrialists who made a dent in the universe in my books.

davedx 6y ago
> I think the biggest gripe is probably about overpromising autopilot capability years before it's actually production ready. Very fair! This has been a pretty spectacular overpromise. I firmly believe FSD will get here eventually but the timeframes were ridiculously off. What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla post here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and how huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are dangerous, regressive, etc. Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Even when SpaceX designed their Dragon controls in consultation with the veteran astronauts who use them, HN was convinced this was bad, and don't even mention they dared used Chromium! (Not really a Tesla specific thing using touchscreens but seems to be a very popular complaint about them here.)
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Well ... depends. Airliner FMS systems are awesome. Small planes usually have Garmin 430 and 530 GPS units, which are not touchscreen (they have side buttons), and have shitty UIs. And those eye-watering navigation database update prices ... thousands per year.
- Silhouette 6y ago
  What I also read is an insane amount of comment on every SpaceX and Tesla post here about how bad it is to have touchscreens in cars or spacecraft, and how huge swathes of HN commenters are absolutely convinced touchscreens are dangerous, regressive, etc. https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-apple-carplay-when-driving https://trl.co.uk/reports/interacting-android-auto-and-apple... Even when professional pilots chime in about how they're used in aircraft. Flying an aircraft is a very different experience to driving a car. The procedures, instruments and control systems are so different that I'm not sure there's really any meaningful comparison at all.
- xkjkls 6y ago
  The timelines are ridiculously off, and they continue to release underbaked features to their beta testing customers. That's actively dangerous. As for the touchscreens, so much of that speaks to Musk's credibility. He seems to make decisions, like with Autopilot above, more for PR than for safety. I can see why people are going to be skeptical when he claims touchscreens are best for space usage/

nickik 6y ago

They miss some deadlines, but with the Model Y they were early. That is arguable the most important part. The giga factories are making pretty fast progress as well. I think the narrative that they are always late on everything is wrong. The set insane goals and most of the time they miss them, but they are still fast even in those cases. I bought stocks for the first time right in the heart of the Covid-19 crisis, Tesla is riding two massive waves of change, electrification and self-driving. It will take 10-15 years to shake out completely but I think Tesla will be the big winner of this shakeout.

TechBro8615 6y ago

The fact that the top engineers in the country want to work at Tesla should be a good sign. Any company that can hire top talent has a solid chance of outperforming its competition.

xkjkls 6y ago
Do top engineers work for Tesla? I see them having great recruiting from the university pipeline, but fresh-faced Eng School graduates are a very different population than the best engineers. You hear so much about Tesla's work culture that seems to discourage older people or people with families from working there.

seesaw 6y ago

“(Strangely, HN, that loved Apple in Steve Jobs' glory days, seems to have a lot of irrational hatred for Tesla)” You do need some with the personality of Musk to take on the current automobile industry. But this also means Musk needs to be always in the news with a lot of unfulfilled claims: https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/

xkjkls 6y ago

Steve Jobs always did exactly as he said he was going to do. Musk doesn't. Self-driving, solar roofs, Semis, Robotaxis, profitability, buyouts, mars missions -- Musk has made enough false claims to write a book.