4 ms·
South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore haven't even had a real first wave yet. They're at 5 deaths per million, that's nothing. The US, by contrast, has rapidly
by gizmo 6y ago
South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore haven't even had a real first wave yet. They're at 5 deaths per million, that's nothing.
The US, by contrast, has rapidly increasing herd immunity. That's why the trend is going down despite less social distancing. And there has never been a working coronavirus vaccin, so the assumption there will be one for covid19 soon is unfounded optimism.
- kweinber 6y agoTrend is up for new cases and hospital beds in almost every single state that opened early. The only exception is Georgia which has been caught falsifying data more than once.
- gizmo 6y agoYou have to torture the data pretty badly to come to that conclusion. In deaths per million those states have vastly outperformed and after the dust has settled they will still have way fewer deaths per million compared to those states where politicians panicked, issued full lockdowns, and sent covid patients to care homes.
- kweinber 6y agoAs far as spread/death differences, population density was a clear multiplier, as would be expected. Policy effects weren’t seen in early days because there were no policy differences, just population density and global travel ones. The rise differential now is the first good example of measurement of policy effects. These are not political points, just data points.
- gizmo 6y agoWhat does population density mean? Number of people per household square footage? Number of people per household? Number of people per zipcode? City/rural? Population density is not a consistent predictor of covid19 spread by any of these measures, unless you also start taking other factors into account. Density matters "intuitively", but it's not borne out by the data.