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I agree, and in fact most people in our times don't understand the odds either. At least in my country, where lottery is quite a big event especially in Christ

I agree, and in fact most people in our times don't understand the odds either. At least in my country, where lottery is quite a big event especially in Christmas (almost everyone plays at that date, even if they don't play during the rest of the year), most people without a STEM background tend to believe things like lottery numbers starting with 0 being more unlikely to win, odd numbers being better than even numbers, or numbers that have already won being more likely (or unlikely) to win. They also queue to buy tickets at places that gave a big prize, thinking that they have a better chance to win (and funnily, since lots of tickets are bought at those places, it becomes a pseudo-self-fulfilling prophecy - they don't really have a better chance, of course, but those specific places keep pumping out prizes year after year due to the volume of tickets sold). I don't think those beliefs of our era are much more advanced that just attributing it to "the gods".

laumars 6y ago
I have my own theory on that and it's the same reason people believe in conspiracy theories. I think superstition, religion, conspiracy theories all have one thing in common: it's the explanation that random things we can't control are actually the result of someone else pulling the proverbial strings. I think some people need to feel like the world isn't chaotic but rather there is some hidden order to it. I think it gives them a sense of comfort, maybe even control over circumstances they ordinarily couldn't control.
- noir_lord 6y ago
  I'm not sure that is a controversial viewpoint. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691618774270 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916187742...
  - laumars 6y ago
    I didn't think nor suggest it was a controversial viewpoint. Thanks for the link though, it's an opinion I'd admittedly never researched to see if anyone else had written up on.
- a_imho 6y ago
  My theory is that conspiracy theories are a direct result of things like fake news, global surveillance programs and governments experimenting on citizens. It is hard not to be skeptical and suspicious by default.
throw0101a 6y ago
> I agree, and in fact most people in our times don't understand the odds either. For example people not understanding that Trump's chances of getting elected were actually pretty good in 2016. FiveThirtyEight consistently showed that he had at roughly 25% chance (i.e. 1-in-4): * https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ I don't know about other people, but I wouldn't want to play Russian roulette with those odds. It should also be noted that Clinton did win the popular vote, it's just that ~70K of the votes were in the "wrong places" so Trump won the electoral college: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote#2016:_Donald_Trump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_ele...

laumars 6y ago

I have my own theory on that and it's the same reason people believe in conspiracy theories. I think superstition, religion, conspiracy theories all have one thing in common: it's the explanation that random things we can't control are actually the result of someone else pulling the proverbial strings. I think some people need to feel like the world isn't chaotic but rather there is some hidden order to it. I think it gives them a sense of comfort, maybe even control over circumstances they ordinarily couldn't control.

noir_lord 6y ago
I'm not sure that is a controversial viewpoint. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691618774270 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17456916187742...
- laumars 6y ago
  I didn't think nor suggest it was a controversial viewpoint. Thanks for the link though, it's an opinion I'd admittedly never researched to see if anyone else had written up on.
a_imho 6y ago
My theory is that conspiracy theories are a direct result of things like fake news, global surveillance programs and governments experimenting on citizens. It is hard not to be skeptical and suspicious by default.

throw0101a 6y ago

> I agree, and in fact most people in our times don't understand the odds either. For example people not understanding that Trump's chances of getting elected were actually pretty good in 2016. FiveThirtyEight consistently showed that he had at roughly 25% chance (i.e. 1-in-4): * https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ I don't know about other people, but I wouldn't want to play Russian roulette with those odds. It should also be noted that Clinton did win the popular vote, it's just that ~70K of the votes were in the "wrong places" so Trump won the electoral college: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote#2016:_Donald_Trump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_ele...