4 ms·

It's not as bad as it's been. The US new case rate is down to about 65% of peak now. It's not dropping fast, but it's dropping. But a medical professional's

It's not as bad as it's been. The US new case rate is down to about 65% of peak now. It's not dropping fast, but it's dropping. But a medical professional's subjective experience is local, and the US is a big place. Some regions are still (sigh) growing, and are indeed "as bad as it's been". But New York is now recording new cases at less than 10% of its peak from April. Broadly: much of the country, and all of the worst hit areas, have this beaten now, as long as we don't lose control when relaxing lockdown rules. That's good news. And the areas that don't have it handled well are, at the very least, not growing in an out of control exponential mode. That's good news too. Stay home. This is the home stretch.

HarryHirsch 6y ago
It's bad. Try this graph to see how bad it really is: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-cases-per-million?tab=chart&yScale=log&time=2020-01-25..&country=USA~DEU https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-cases-per-milli... New infections per capita in the US are not falling and are an order of magnitude higher than in Western Europe. Israel brought new infections down to a few cases/million until they opened schools back up, now they are in line with Western Europe. The trouble is that there are superspreading events, someone brings the virus to church or university, and everyone present gets it. There are reports of outbreaks in farmworker accomodation and consequent failures of the vegetable harvest. This isn't over at all and only getting worse when cash-strapped universities insist that their students come back on campus in August.
- unishark 6y ago
  Models such as this one are estimating the number of actual infections is many times higher than the confirmed tests... and falling. Though this is projected to turn around again as social distancing ends. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
zzzeek 6y ago
this is nowhere near any kind of "home stretch", this is the second inning at best. it is rocketing off in many states now, just not the ones in which it initially took off [1]. it will continue to rocket in various regions of the country, over and over again until a vaccine can be distributed to much of the population or when the government is changed to one that can orchestrate contact tracing, isolation and testing at the national level. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/coronavirus-cases-uptick-detected-some-us-states https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/coronavirus-ca...
TylerE 6y ago
The way things are trending, I expect it to start rising again. Many southern states are rising rapidly, as well as in the southwest. Here in NC we're double what we were a month ago in both daily new cases AND current hospitalizations. https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard

HarryHirsch 6y ago

It's bad. Try this graph to see how bad it really is: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-cases-per-million?tab=chart&yScale=log&time=2020-01-25..&country=USA~DEU https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-cases-per-milli... New infections per capita in the US are not falling and are an order of magnitude higher than in Western Europe. Israel brought new infections down to a few cases/million until they opened schools back up, now they are in line with Western Europe. The trouble is that there are superspreading events, someone brings the virus to church or university, and everyone present gets it. There are reports of outbreaks in farmworker accomodation and consequent failures of the vegetable harvest. This isn't over at all and only getting worse when cash-strapped universities insist that their students come back on campus in August.

unishark 6y ago
Models such as this one are estimating the number of actual infections is many times higher than the confirmed tests... and falling. Though this is projected to turn around again as social distancing ends. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

zzzeek 6y ago

this is nowhere near any kind of "home stretch", this is the second inning at best. it is rocketing off in many states now, just not the ones in which it initially took off [1]. it will continue to rocket in various regions of the country, over and over again until a vaccine can be distributed to much of the population or when the government is changed to one that can orchestrate contact tracing, isolation and testing at the national level. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/coronavirus-cases-uptick-detected-some-us-states https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/coronavirus-ca...

TylerE 6y ago

The way things are trending, I expect it to start rising again. Many southern states are rising rapidly, as well as in the southwest. Here in NC we're double what we were a month ago in both daily new cases AND current hospitalizations. https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard