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Many economists and politicians were deaf to the phrase 'tipping point'. Again, they chose not to hear it.

rayiner 6y ago
The tipping point analysis is encapsulated into the IPCC projections the economists are relying on. If by "tipping point" you mean "runaway" effects--IPCC scientists have not embraced such effects as likely.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  That's simple garbage. IPCC have been warning about tipping points. Here's a recent one https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 The ipcc has warned of exactly those runaway effects.
  - xyzzyz 6y ago
    Why would IPCC then write in their report that runaway effects are unlikely?
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      If they had, I'd be wrong. Please quote where they said that.
      - rayiner 6y ago
        The IPCC has addressed many "tipping points" that don't lead to civilization-ending consequences: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3. The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible.
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        That there are tipping points that don't do not preclude tipping points that plausibly do. > The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible. WHERE? doc URL and page number or searchable extract please.
        rayiner 6y ago
        https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf Page 90 first full paragraph.
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        You completely misunderstand (or misrepresent) that para. ...“runaway greenhouse effect”—analogous to Venus... From wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) "Venus is by far the hottest planet in the Solar System, with a mean surface temperature of 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F)" So they don't expect the earth's surface to become hot enough to literally melt lead (327 °C) by a large margin. Neither do I. Hint: it doesn't need to get anywhere near that extreme before we're dead. The rest of that para does actually list some "unacceptable" and "dangerous" irreversible impacts (selective quote for space:) "For example, stability of thermohaline circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) or the Greenland ice sheet, the mobilization of biospheric CO 2 stocks, changes in the Asian summer monsoons, loss of mountain glaciers, coral reefs"

The tipping point analysis is encapsulated into the IPCC projections the economists are relying on. If by "tipping point" you mean "runaway" effects--IPCC scientists have not embraced such effects as likely.

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
That's simple garbage. IPCC have been warning about tipping points. Here's a recent one https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 The ipcc has warned of exactly those runaway effects.
- xyzzyz 6y ago
  Why would IPCC then write in their report that runaway effects are unlikely?
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    If they had, I'd be wrong. Please quote where they said that.
    - rayiner 6y ago
      The IPCC has addressed many "tipping points" that don't lead to civilization-ending consequences: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3. The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible.
      - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        That there are tipping points that don't do not preclude tipping points that plausibly do. > The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible. WHERE? doc URL and page number or searchable extract please.
        rayiner 6y ago
        https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf Page 90 first full paragraph.
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        You completely misunderstand (or misrepresent) that para. ...“runaway greenhouse effect”—analogous to Venus... From wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) "Venus is by far the hottest planet in the Solar System, with a mean surface temperature of 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F)" So they don't expect the earth's surface to become hot enough to literally melt lead (327 °C) by a large margin. Neither do I. Hint: it doesn't need to get anywhere near that extreme before we're dead. The rest of that para does actually list some "unacceptable" and "dangerous" irreversible impacts (selective quote for space:) "For example, stability of thermohaline circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) or the Greenland ice sheet, the mobilization of biospheric CO 2 stocks, changes in the Asian summer monsoons, loss of mountain glaciers, coral reefs"