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I've followed the IPCC and knew some scientists. From what I gathered the IPCC seemed to be toning down their scenarios to make them politically palatable. Just

I've followed the IPCC and knew some scientists. From what I gathered the IPCC seemed to be toning down their scenarios to make them politically palatable. Just an impression. > the pessimistic among climate economists have predicated impacts somewhere along the lines of 10-15% of global GDP Economists decided to disregard externalities. I've zero faith in official economics. And newspapers try not to scare people, that's where they make their money from. Added: the climate scientists I knew were borderline panicking 15 years ago at least.

me_me_me 6y ago
Economists people who believe in infinite growth in finite world. They made up Nobel in Economics to pretend to be scientists. They might start wearing mystical robes and give themselves funny titles. Since they are as useful at guessing how economy works and how to steer as other 'officials' who wear mystical robes and have funny titles. Both are also always 100% they are right about everything. Sorry about ranting, reading about climate change always puts me in depressing mood.
- rayiner 6y ago
  The economics of climate change aren’t about prognostication. The climate scientists produce projections about impacts on, e.g. agriculture. Economists simply estimate what the economic impacts would be if those impacts in those economic sectors happened.
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    Many economists and politicians were deaf to the phrase 'tipping point'. Again, they chose not to hear it.
    - rayiner 6y ago
      The tipping point analysis is encapsulated into the IPCC projections the economists are relying on. If by "tipping point" you mean "runaway" effects--IPCC scientists have not embraced such effects as likely.
      - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        That's simple garbage. IPCC have been warning about tipping points. Here's a recent one https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 The ipcc has warned of exactly those runaway effects.
        xyzzyz 6y ago
        Why would IPCC then write in their report that runaway effects are unlikely?
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        If they had, I'd be wrong. Please quote where they said that.
        rayiner 6y ago
        The IPCC has addressed many "tipping points" that don't lead to civilization-ending consequences: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3. The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible.
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        That there are tipping points that don't do not preclude tipping points that plausibly do. > The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible. WHERE? doc URL and page number or searchable extract please.
        rayiner 6y ago
        https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf Page 90 first full paragraph.

me_me_me 6y ago

Economists people who believe in infinite growth in finite world. They made up Nobel in Economics to pretend to be scientists. They might start wearing mystical robes and give themselves funny titles. Since they are as useful at guessing how economy works and how to steer as other 'officials' who wear mystical robes and have funny titles. Both are also always 100% they are right about everything. Sorry about ranting, reading about climate change always puts me in depressing mood.

rayiner 6y ago
The economics of climate change aren’t about prognostication. The climate scientists produce projections about impacts on, e.g. agriculture. Economists simply estimate what the economic impacts would be if those impacts in those economic sectors happened.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  Many economists and politicians were deaf to the phrase 'tipping point'. Again, they chose not to hear it.
  - rayiner 6y ago
    The tipping point analysis is encapsulated into the IPCC projections the economists are relying on. If by "tipping point" you mean "runaway" effects--IPCC scientists have not embraced such effects as likely.
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      That's simple garbage. IPCC have been warning about tipping points. Here's a recent one https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 The ipcc has warned of exactly those runaway effects.
      - xyzzyz 6y ago
        Why would IPCC then write in their report that runaway effects are unlikely?
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        If they had, I'd be wrong. Please quote where they said that.
        rayiner 6y ago
        The IPCC has addressed many "tipping points" that don't lead to civilization-ending consequences: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3. The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible.
        throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        That there are tipping points that don't do not preclude tipping points that plausibly do. > The IPCC's Fifth Report stated that a "runaway greenhouse"-type outcome was virtually impossible. WHERE? doc URL and page number or searchable extract please.
        rayiner 6y ago
        https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/inf3-6.pdf Page 90 first full paragraph.