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How can you not have noticed any changes in 40 years time? I take you don't live in an area with extreme summers/winters? Or don't you go skiing and notice the

by vekker 6y ago

How can you not have noticed any changes in 40 years time? I take you don't live in an area with extreme summers/winters? Or don't you go skiing and notice the rapidly melting permafrost? Also, regardless of your opinion and what you "see", what happened to trusting the scientific method & looking at the actual numbers? As Gates said "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten."

deleted 6y ago
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Udik 6y ago
> How can you not have noticed any changes in 40 years time? I take you don't live in an area with extreme summers/winters? Or don't you go skiing and notice the rapidly melting permafrost? I think that any personal observation about climate on such a timescale is almost always unreliable. By the way, a common cliche' phrase at least a century old in Italian is "there are no mid-seasons any more", and another one is "there are no more winters like there used to be". In "Dictionnaire des idées reçues", a satirical dictionary of cliches compiled in the 1870s, Flaubert lists for both summer and winter the same cliche: "always exceptional".
- tartoran 6y ago
  Actually these cliches seem only to confirm these personal observations, why else would people hold on to them? And the figure you mention and the industrial revolution seem to coincide. I too remember playing in a few feet of snow only to barely reach below freezing point a few times a winter. The last couple of winters were actually barren of any snow where I live
  - Udik 6y ago
    The cliches about summer and winter being "always exceptional" are from the 1870s. The effects of climate change surely weren't visible then (though I believe the climate was still warming from the "little ice age"). What these cliches suggest to me is that there is a human tendency to either mis-remember the climate of our youth or to misjudge the exceptionality of the current weather (similar somehow to how old people tend to grumble about the "new generations" and how they'll ruin everything- and it's been like that for millennia). Or alternatively, that weather patterns always change, slowly enough to be assumed as stable, but still quickly enough to be noticeable on a long human timescale. In either case, the fact that remarks on the exceptionality of the weather and its difference from the past existed before any CO2 - induced climate change was happening, says that we cannot rely on that type of impression to confirm the scientific measurements about the climate. It's strange we think otherwise, because one of the fundamental tenets of science is that subjective observation is biased and unreliable, and rigorous measures need to be taken to remove that subjective bias from observation.

by vekker 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

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Udik 6y ago

> How can you not have noticed any changes in 40 years time? I take you don't live in an area with extreme summers/winters? Or don't you go skiing and notice the rapidly melting permafrost? I think that any personal observation about climate on such a timescale is almost always unreliable. By the way, a common cliche' phrase at least a century old in Italian is "there are no mid-seasons any more", and another one is "there are no more winters like there used to be". In "Dictionnaire des idées reçues", a satirical dictionary of cliches compiled in the 1870s, Flaubert lists for both summer and winter the same cliche: "always exceptional".

tartoran 6y ago
Actually these cliches seem only to confirm these personal observations, why else would people hold on to them? And the figure you mention and the industrial revolution seem to coincide. I too remember playing in a few feet of snow only to barely reach below freezing point a few times a winter. The last couple of winters were actually barren of any snow where I live
- Udik 6y ago
  The cliches about summer and winter being "always exceptional" are from the 1870s. The effects of climate change surely weren't visible then (though I believe the climate was still warming from the "little ice age"). What these cliches suggest to me is that there is a human tendency to either mis-remember the climate of our youth or to misjudge the exceptionality of the current weather (similar somehow to how old people tend to grumble about the "new generations" and how they'll ruin everything- and it's been like that for millennia). Or alternatively, that weather patterns always change, slowly enough to be assumed as stable, but still quickly enough to be noticeable on a long human timescale. In either case, the fact that remarks on the exceptionality of the weather and its difference from the past existed before any CO2 - induced climate change was happening, says that we cannot rely on that type of impression to confirm the scientific measurements about the climate. It's strange we think otherwise, because one of the fundamental tenets of science is that subjective observation is biased and unreliable, and rigorous measures need to be taken to remove that subjective bias from observation.