3 ms·

From what I understand, this is arguing that we should be collectively doing this in order to limit overcrowding, this method is not very helpful as an individu

From what I understand, this is arguing that we should be collectively doing this in order to limit overcrowding, this method is not very helpful as an individual. If based on past trends it is overcapacity at 2:00 and under capacity at 4:00, as and individual you shouldn't expect that to change and should always go at 4:00. Without a prescription for how many people want to go at a given time, you can't really make use of this information. If every body was following this rule, there ought to never be overcrowding, so you could never know this information by using past data. So you would need to use a sign up or polling method to figure out. If using a sign up, you could just set a cap on how many people can sign up so you don't need randomness. If using polling then this method could be helpful. Though another issue with this model is assuming a fixed positive utility from going when overcrowded and a fixed negative utility when overcrowded. In reality the fewer people the higher utility, plus each individual has different utility based on what time they are going. Taking all this into account, I feel like the only reasonable approach is what is already done, go to the store during a convenient time for you that is the least busy based on passed data. If everyone does this, we should expected to reach a happy equilibrium (sans unexpected upsets, such as the recent rushes before lock downs).

ulucs 6y ago
If there is positive utility from shopping while crowded, it means the game is Prisoner's Dilemma: going shopping will be always the best option. I can understand why they didn't consider that possibility as it is "unsolvable" anyway.
wahern 6y ago
> I feel like the only reasonable approach is what is already done, go to the store during a convenient time for you that is the least busy based on passed data. But people don't have good data--you'd have to go at random times for weeks or months to have a sense of the best times. And in any event people don't invest much effort in this. We're not rational beings. We systematically underestimate the value of collecting and applying such data, just as we systematically overestimate the value of other things. Not to mention the collective action problem in maximizing total social benefit. Supermarkets need to lower the cost of information aggregation. They could prominently display at the entrance and at checkout lanes a simple graph of customer traffic so that people could instantly, freely know how to avoid the crowds. But this might have to be mandated by law as they otherwise have very little perceived incentive to do this. Even though the cost is trivial, businesses aren't perfectly rational actors any more than humans are. Anyhow, trivial isn't zero, especially when the returns are uncertain. It will take a significant external push to move away from their local optimum solution--managing crowds by adjusting the number of cashiers.
- newstorkcity 6y ago
  Google will report how busy some business are on an hour by hour basis, I assume based on anonymous phone locations collected. If google covers the business you want to go to that would solve the coordination problem. I'm not sure how to make google show this information. Usually I can just look up "[business] hours" and it will give me the plot, it might not be showing that information right now due to low activity because of the lock down.

ulucs 6y ago

If there is positive utility from shopping while crowded, it means the game is Prisoner's Dilemma: going shopping will be always the best option. I can understand why they didn't consider that possibility as it is "unsolvable" anyway.

wahern 6y ago

> I feel like the only reasonable approach is what is already done, go to the store during a convenient time for you that is the least busy based on passed data. But people don't have good data--you'd have to go at random times for weeks or months to have a sense of the best times. And in any event people don't invest much effort in this. We're not rational beings. We systematically underestimate the value of collecting and applying such data, just as we systematically overestimate the value of other things. Not to mention the collective action problem in maximizing total social benefit. Supermarkets need to lower the cost of information aggregation. They could prominently display at the entrance and at checkout lanes a simple graph of customer traffic so that people could instantly, freely know how to avoid the crowds. But this might have to be mandated by law as they otherwise have very little perceived incentive to do this. Even though the cost is trivial, businesses aren't perfectly rational actors any more than humans are. Anyhow, trivial isn't zero, especially when the returns are uncertain. It will take a significant external push to move away from their local optimum solution--managing crowds by adjusting the number of cashiers.

newstorkcity 6y ago
Google will report how busy some business are on an hour by hour basis, I assume based on anonymous phone locations collected. If google covers the business you want to go to that would solve the coordination problem. I'm not sure how to make google show this information. Usually I can just look up "[business] hours" and it will give me the plot, it might not be showing that information right now due to low activity because of the lock down.