4 ms·

> What evidence do we have for being closer to AGI today than we were twenty years ago? None; I agree. But we have no evidence we are 20 years away from it eit

• tuatoru 6y ago
  Why prepare for that risk in particular? Resources are scarce; decisions have to be made about where to use them. The likelier severe risks are nuclear war, pandemic, volcanism, earthquakes and tsunamis, multinational infrastructure cyberattack, bioweapons, nonlinear climate change (e.g. a step change in strength and duration of heatwaves making most of North India and Pakistan uninhabitable), and multiple food supply system collapse (e.g. widespread outbreaks of severe wheat, rice, potato and corn diseases). In contrast to those risks, which we understand quite well, humanity has no idea how an AGI might be made. Since a putative AGI will be made by humans, this is a big stumbling block for anyone who proposes we need to divert resources to AGI risk.