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I've been trying to decide if inflation would be bad for stocks. I frequently see anonymous internet people say/presume it would be fine, or talk about "asset i
by perl4ever 6y ago
I've been trying to decide if inflation would be bad for stocks. I frequently see anonymous internet people say/presume it would be fine, or talk about "asset inflation" as though printing money would obviously inflate stocks.
However, my first instinct is, wouldn't it be like the 70s, when stocks got down to single digit P/E ratios? Inflation, historically, seemed really really bad for stocks. But then I think, well, that may have been because of the gold standard which distorted things until we were forced to give up on it.
So I was thinking along these lines - the big American companies are multinationals, which means they run businesses that have customers and costs largely in local currency all over the world, while they are going to have stock priced and dividends paid in US $. So maybe they are essentially immune to inflation now. If the dollar halves, they will just go on doing what they do, and twice as many dollars will come out.
Maybe the world is not dependent on the dollar because of globalization.
I wonder if we might see the same pattern with respect to dollar inflation as COVID - the huge and high tech companies will be unexpectedly advantaged, while the smaller non-multinationals will be seriously wounded.