The risks that he mentions are not far fetched, but are probably not the biggest risks the Fed should worry about. It does make me doubt his predictions that in

The risks that he mentions are not far fetched, but are probably not the biggest risks the Fed should worry about. It does make me doubt his predictions that in the 2009 financial crisis he also predicted that inflation would pick up, which didn't happen. In both crisis he mentioned stagflation, which can happen when there is a supply shock (like oil prices increasing) and governments growing the money supply too quickly. Now we are suffering a supply shock but also a big demand shock (just look at oil prices...) which makes the situation different. This doesn't mean that inflation won't increase once the first stage of the crisis is over (specially in food, which will impact developing countries the most), but I think it is far from the most important thing to worry about right now.