3 ms·
Great work! I think simulations/models are a great tool. some feedback: >there is no tradeoff between saving lives (due to COVID-19) and reducing widespread e
by dorgo 6y ago
Great work! I think simulations/models are a great tool.
some feedback:
>there is no tradeoff between saving lives (due to COVID-19) and reducing widespread economic damage
It is easy to show that there is no tradeoff by assuming that economic damage is only dependend on the duration of the lockdown. Why not aim for R=0? This would save even more lives and reduce the duration of the lockdown to what? 3 weeks? It will just stop all economic activity for 3 weeks. More severe policies have a greater impact on economy. And my intuition is that this dependency is non-liniar. Each reduction of R by 0.1 could for example double(?) the damage to economy. I only skimmed your article [1] - so maybe you already addressed this?
>Counterintuitively, the policy frontier (economic vs human damage) is concave and non-monotonic, and has three distinct regions.
Not surprising at all. I think the right hand side negative slope region of the policy curve is the herd immunity strategy (at least I call it so). It was discussed (and rejected) months ago.