3 ms·

What you say is not true - it could be true potentially but the data shows that's not the case. Tests counts relatively stable recently but pos counts went up a

What you say is not true - it could be true potentially but the data shows that's not the case. Tests counts relatively stable recently but pos counts went up and percent of tests that were positive also increased. See https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/ https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/. As you see on this page, many states are increasing absolute number of tests - Texas is actually steady for a week at around 18k tests per day. But the % of people testing positive is increasing (see that same website). On that page scroll to 'how is my state doing on testing' and look at Texas, it's interesting to compare states. Notice last week number of daily tests was around 18k/day. Test positivity went from 5.5% to 7.7%. This isn't a political issue, it's just the actual numbers. Compare to say Wyoming (increased tests unlike Texas from 472 to 690 per day, test positivity went down there). Oregon is getting worse (2.4k tests/day, in the last week 1.5% to 3.4% of tests are pos). Texas is having increasing covid-19 positive tests, it's not from increasing the number of tests and icu bed space is going down. This website gives the data source so you can look at it yourself.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
You are missing the nuance once again. I am glad you mentioned Oregon, because I am in Oregon and have been following my states response pretty closely, for obvious reasons. Oregon recently had an outbreak at a seafood plant, and retirement center. The seafood outbreak infected around 125 people, the retirement center around 35. There is also a smaller outbreak at a food processing plant in Washington County, with I believe 5-10 infections. Here is the secret, Oregon is _now_ doing contact tracing. So _everyone_ at Pacific Seafood was tested, despite a vast majority showing no symptoms. These people would _not_ have been tested two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, testing was generally voluntary and people would request tests if they felt they needed one. Now, people who have confirmed interaction with infected individuals are being tested by state mandate. So of course, now Oregon will have more cases discovered and more positive tests. You see how your "actual numbers" still don't tell the whole story? There is context in every single state, city, county that you miss just looking at raw numbers. Without that context you make generalizations about what the data is telling you. Stop that. Yes, Texas should be watched, but the health authority in Texas does not seem to be worried. My own governor, Kate Brown, who has taken this (imo) too seriously, has stated publicly that she _fully expects_ an increase in cases over the coming weeks as we reopen. But now, we have the hospital and treatment capacity to handle it. And about the Texas example, where ICU beds are decreasing. The site you linked does not seem to really mention what those ICU patients are in for. When states reopen, so do car wrecks, workplace injuries, major surgeries etc. A bypass surgery will require a few days in an ICU, so now that major surgeries are happening again, of course ICU capacity would be taxed. Again, as I've been saying, you lack context. This time last year, what was the ICU bed utilization in Texas? Now that we see that intubation and invasive ventilators actually worsens outcomes, how many COVID patients can be treated _outside_ of an ICU? As I said in my original post, we are not updating our metrics to meet new understandings. ICU beds are a silly metric now, but they sure are scary!

salmon30salmon 6y ago

You are missing the nuance once again. I am glad you mentioned Oregon, because I am in Oregon and have been following my states response pretty closely, for obvious reasons. Oregon recently had an outbreak at a seafood plant, and retirement center. The seafood outbreak infected around 125 people, the retirement center around 35. There is also a smaller outbreak at a food processing plant in Washington County, with I believe 5-10 infections. Here is the secret, Oregon is _now_ doing contact tracing. So _everyone_ at Pacific Seafood was tested, despite a vast majority showing no symptoms. These people would _not_ have been tested two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, testing was generally voluntary and people would request tests if they felt they needed one. Now, people who have confirmed interaction with infected individuals are being tested by state mandate. So of course, now Oregon will have more cases discovered and more positive tests. You see how your "actual numbers" still don't tell the whole story? There is context in every single state, city, county that you miss just looking at raw numbers. Without that context you make generalizations about what the data is telling you. Stop that. Yes, Texas should be watched, but the health authority in Texas does not seem to be worried. My own governor, Kate Brown, who has taken this (imo) too seriously, has stated publicly that she _fully expects_ an increase in cases over the coming weeks as we reopen. But now, we have the hospital and treatment capacity to handle it. And about the Texas example, where ICU beds are decreasing. The site you linked does not seem to really mention what those ICU patients are in for. When states reopen, so do car wrecks, workplace injuries, major surgeries etc. A bypass surgery will require a few days in an ICU, so now that major surgeries are happening again, of course ICU capacity would be taxed. Again, as I've been saying, you lack context. This time last year, what was the ICU bed utilization in Texas? Now that we see that intubation and invasive ventilators actually worsens outcomes, how many COVID patients can be treated _outside_ of an ICU? As I said in my original post, we are not updating our metrics to meet new understandings. ICU beds are a silly metric now, but they sure are scary!