4 ms·
> Unfortunately, due to not understanding exponentials, many advocated for starting the lockdown later: hence the UK's delayed lockdown and therefore highest de
by eeh 6y ago
> Unfortunately, due to not understanding exponentials, many advocated for starting the lockdown later: hence the UK's delayed lockdown and therefore highest death toll in Europe.
UK's strategy was as advised by various epidemiology teams across the country, predominantly Imperial and Oxford. They understand exponentials. That's epidemiology 101.
> The people advocating for "herd immunity" never addressed the death rate; a death rate of even 0.5% in the UK would be three hundred thousand people, plus more with lingering side effects.
That was acknowledged. They were concerned that suppression was infeasible, and would cause more deaths
e.g. if there is a second wave during UK winter, or if lockdown has knock on health impacts.
> As it is, we've confirmed 287k infected for 40k deaths, or 0.5% of the country infected. A very, very long way from immunity.
The number of confirmed cases is smaller than the number of actual cases, since many cases are asymptomatic and hence typically not tested.
Epidemiology and public health is a complex field, beyond armchair analysis.