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I believe my comment about halving mortality addresses this. They're already likely to arbitrarily die - if in 2017 I could reduce that probability by half (co
by esotericn 6y ago
I believe my comment about halving mortality addresses this.
They're already likely to arbitrarily die - if in 2017 I could reduce that probability by half (coronavirus roughly doubles mortality across all age groups) by having everyone stay inside or perform the various rituals like standing far apart, wearing masks etc I wouldn't do it.
If instead of decreasing life expectancy by less than a year it were something like 10 (and so we went full hazmat, disallowing things like even entering a supermarket in favour of MRE deliveries) then the calculus would be different.
The main inescapable issue, which exists lockdown or not, is visiting elderly or immunocompromised relatives, not because of the absolute risk, but because of the impact that being able to say "my visit probably killed Grandma" would have.
- daveFNbuck 6y agoCoronavirus may only double overall mortality, but having no hospital capacity would cause a further increase in deaths. We'd probably just end up in a real lockdown (shelter in place orders are not a lockdown) and have a bunch of extra dead people.