8 ms·
At the start (by which I mean late Feb/early March as I wasn't paying attention before then), I believed it all. I was worried about the ventilator crisis and w
by thu2111 6y ago
At the start (by which I mean late Feb/early March as I wasn't paying attention before then), I believed it all. I was worried about the ventilator crisis and wanted to find ways to help manufacture or mass create them.
Towards the end of March I started to realise that I kept reading about the supposed impending ventilator shortage, but it should have happened already and yet we didn't seem to be ever quite running out. Then a newspaper published some article about the history of Professor Ferguson and his failed foot-and-mouth disease models. I went and read some papers about the failings of epidemiology and was really shocked at how divergent the views were on the utility of these models.
Then in the comments on that story, I found someone linking to https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ which just had so much data, so many links to raw sources and interviews with skeptical doctors. At that point I started to realise that many of the comments I was reading here on HN appeared to be mixing up predictions with reality; I kept reading people here talk about how Italy was experiencing mass deaths and hospital overflow yet on the SWPRS site there were links to actual articles in Italian where hospital officials said they hadn't yet run out of capacity, they weren't yet turning people away, they were just worried it might start soon. And this kept happening. Moreover my attempts to point this out kept getting voted down, so that's when I realised it was going ideological. A lot of people were desperate to correct "misinformation" and were just getting angry at anything that contradicted the official narrative. There was no rational reason to vote down posts saying "actually the situation is better than you think" yet it was happening.
So I guess that's the point I became a serious lockdown skeptic. The disparity between what people consuming regular media believed vs what the raw (often non English) data was saying just became too wide. And after that I believe everyone has been catching up, especially now with this "protests against health policies are dangerous but protests against racism aren't" nonsense.