7 ms·

Link to a prior post of mine: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23074528 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23074528 China reports infectious disease cou

by ceedan 6y ago

Link to a prior post of mine: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23074528 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23074528 China reports infectious disease counts and deaths each month. The numbers from December '19 were insane compared to '18

simonh 6y ago
Except that we already know that the strain of flu around this winter was particularly bad, much worse than recent years, so a jump in deaths like that is actually not surprising. After all the number is about 700k even in a typical year. This could also help explain the hospital traffic data. I just don’t buy it. If Covid-19 was in wide circulation, affecting hundreds of thousands of people as early as September and October, how come it wasn’t all over China? Or the rest of the world for that matter. What was keeping it in Wuhan? There’s no way it could have grown within the wuhan population, to affect that many people that early, without it being propagated all over the place. People just travel too much these days in China.
- nraynaud 6y ago
  There seem to be at least one case older than Wuhan. The new trend is just to consider the market has a spreading place, not precisely the source.
- ImaCake 6y ago
  We also know that China is willing and able to lock down whole swathes of the country to prevent viral spread. If it appeared earlier on the scale of what happened in Wuhan, and local politicians didn't fuck up, the Party would have locked down wherever that was.
  - Melting_Harps 6y ago
    > We also know that China is willing and able to lock down whole swathes of the country to prevent viral spread. They may have boarded up Wuhan, only after dissapearing journalists and citizens showing the severity of it as the CCP lied about its transmission, but the rest of the Mainland were free to rush into Hong Kong despite local opposition and Medical workers warning of spreading the virus. They overwhelmed the medical system and on were recorded on social media platforms sneezing and coughing directly into often touched areas in public spaces. It is seriously not hyperbole that the CCP should face Crimes Against Humanity for biological warfare.
    - ImaCake 6y ago
      >It is seriously not hyperbole that the CCP should face Crimes Against Humanity for biological warfare. It sure sounds like hyperbole. Hong Kong has had a bit over 1100 cases so far, which is frankly trivial.
      - Melting_Harps 6y ago
        > It sure sounds like hyperbole. Hong Kong has had a bit over 1100 cases so far, which is frankly trivial. And that is because of their personal efforts, not the CCP who forcefully kept the borders via Carrie Lam's legislation open against Public outcry. Hong Kong had already learned the lesson from SARS outbreak, and understood what they needed to do to lessen the contagion and they quarantined and limited human contact--they even stopped protesting despite it being in full swing in late November to early December. There medical system was still overwhelmed and PPE was scarce while they were still treating mainlanders who came in droves and continued to abuse the system and foment violence amongst Hong Kong citizens. Many mainlanders were supposed to quarantine but violated the 2 week mandatory period and were out in public and going into restaurants with their armbands indicating they were supposed not leave their home/hotel. If I had the time I'd go look for the videos and pictures, but I'm sure you'd try to rationalize that away some how, too. You can look at the numbers and try to draw erroneous conclusions, but that doesn't tell the entire story; you know what does? The CCP violently enforcing the Security Law Bill, beating and killing protestors that have eventually led to Hong Kong citizens now having to flee to Taiwan and the UK now.
        ImaCake 6y ago
        No, I agree that there is horrible oppression in Hong Kong. It is terrible, and China should be punished for that warcrime. I disagree about the biological warcrimes bit. I think China did enough to try and halt the spread, even if they did it only out of self-interest. Thanks for a detailed and careful response, lack of agreement doesn't mean we can't build bridges of understanding :)
        6y ago
- philliphaydon 6y ago
  Do you accept that America with ~350m people has ~20k deaths from the flu each year, while china with ~1.5b people only has ~18?
  - simonh 6y ago
    No, I'm sure they severely under-report it, mainly because I doubt they have the data. Most people don't go near hospitals if they can possibly avoid it because it's so expensive. Still, assuming a consistent recording methodology, changes in recorded case numbers should still serve as a useful indicator of trends.
    - philliphaydon 6y ago
      > Most people don't go near hospitals if they can possibly avoid it because it's so expensive. Still, assuming a consistent recording methodology, changes in recorded case numbers should still serve as a useful indicator of trends. In china? The difference is that outside of china, if you die, it's reported as something like "died of heart attack bought on by influenza virus", or "died of complications caused by influenza virus", etc. In china, if you have /any/ underlying condition, the reported death is the underlying condition, not influenza.

by ceedan 6y ago

simonh 6y ago

Except that we already know that the strain of flu around this winter was particularly bad, much worse than recent years, so a jump in deaths like that is actually not surprising. After all the number is about 700k even in a typical year. This could also help explain the hospital traffic data. I just don’t buy it. If Covid-19 was in wide circulation, affecting hundreds of thousands of people as early as September and October, how come it wasn’t all over China? Or the rest of the world for that matter. What was keeping it in Wuhan? There’s no way it could have grown within the wuhan population, to affect that many people that early, without it being propagated all over the place. People just travel too much these days in China.

nraynaud 6y ago
There seem to be at least one case older than Wuhan. The new trend is just to consider the market has a spreading place, not precisely the source.
ImaCake 6y ago
We also know that China is willing and able to lock down whole swathes of the country to prevent viral spread. If it appeared earlier on the scale of what happened in Wuhan, and local politicians didn't fuck up, the Party would have locked down wherever that was.
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  > We also know that China is willing and able to lock down whole swathes of the country to prevent viral spread. They may have boarded up Wuhan, only after dissapearing journalists and citizens showing the severity of it as the CCP lied about its transmission, but the rest of the Mainland were free to rush into Hong Kong despite local opposition and Medical workers warning of spreading the virus. They overwhelmed the medical system and on were recorded on social media platforms sneezing and coughing directly into often touched areas in public spaces. It is seriously not hyperbole that the CCP should face Crimes Against Humanity for biological warfare.
  - ImaCake 6y ago
    >It is seriously not hyperbole that the CCP should face Crimes Against Humanity for biological warfare. It sure sounds like hyperbole. Hong Kong has had a bit over 1100 cases so far, which is frankly trivial.
    - Melting_Harps 6y ago
      > It sure sounds like hyperbole. Hong Kong has had a bit over 1100 cases so far, which is frankly trivial. And that is because of their personal efforts, not the CCP who forcefully kept the borders via Carrie Lam's legislation open against Public outcry. Hong Kong had already learned the lesson from SARS outbreak, and understood what they needed to do to lessen the contagion and they quarantined and limited human contact--they even stopped protesting despite it being in full swing in late November to early December. There medical system was still overwhelmed and PPE was scarce while they were still treating mainlanders who came in droves and continued to abuse the system and foment violence amongst Hong Kong citizens. Many mainlanders were supposed to quarantine but violated the 2 week mandatory period and were out in public and going into restaurants with their armbands indicating they were supposed not leave their home/hotel. If I had the time I'd go look for the videos and pictures, but I'm sure you'd try to rationalize that away some how, too. You can look at the numbers and try to draw erroneous conclusions, but that doesn't tell the entire story; you know what does? The CCP violently enforcing the Security Law Bill, beating and killing protestors that have eventually led to Hong Kong citizens now having to flee to Taiwan and the UK now.
      - ImaCake 6y ago
        No, I agree that there is horrible oppression in Hong Kong. It is terrible, and China should be punished for that warcrime. I disagree about the biological warcrimes bit. I think China did enough to try and halt the spread, even if they did it only out of self-interest. Thanks for a detailed and careful response, lack of agreement doesn't mean we can't build bridges of understanding :)
        6y ago
philliphaydon 6y ago
Do you accept that America with ~350m people has ~20k deaths from the flu each year, while china with ~1.5b people only has ~18?
- simonh 6y ago
  No, I'm sure they severely under-report it, mainly because I doubt they have the data. Most people don't go near hospitals if they can possibly avoid it because it's so expensive. Still, assuming a consistent recording methodology, changes in recorded case numbers should still serve as a useful indicator of trends.
  - philliphaydon 6y ago
    > Most people don't go near hospitals if they can possibly avoid it because it's so expensive. Still, assuming a consistent recording methodology, changes in recorded case numbers should still serve as a useful indicator of trends. In china? The difference is that outside of china, if you die, it's reported as something like "died of heart attack bought on by influenza virus", or "died of complications caused by influenza virus", etc. In china, if you have /any/ underlying condition, the reported death is the underlying condition, not influenza.