4 ms·
"The left" doesn't say "lockdown lockdown lockdown". As a card-carrying (ANTIFA, laminated) member of the left, I consider countries like Austria, South Korea,
by KarlKemp 6y ago
"The left" doesn't say "lockdown lockdown lockdown".
As a card-carrying (ANTIFA, laminated) member of the left, I consider countries like Austria, South Korea, or maybe Germany the gold standard: lockdown, yes, but continually adjusted, exchanging the most draconian measures with lesser ones when more knowledge allows more targeting, or when infection numbers sink.
All those countries have now effectively exited lockdowns, at levels of single-digit daily deaths. This allows further lockdown-free reduction by amassing resources for contact tracing every single infection.
Meanwhile, the US, UK, Brasil, and other countries are seeing thousands of deaths daily because they stopped maybe two or three weeks too early, and/or did it half-heatedly and/or failed to use that time to stand up alternatives to lockdown.
This has won them absolutely nothing, economically, as far as I can tell: Germany is at +3% unemployment (6.6% total) while the US is on >15%. And except hoping for the weather to make a difference, they will either continue to see people dying and incurring the cost of people self-quarantine. Or they'll change course, do another round of sustained lockdowns after all, and use that time to think of an excuse for wasting three months and 100,000 lives on a thought process that took competently managed countries the better part of the last in-person meeting they had this year.
- robocat 6y agoEveryone has their own theory about why some countries do better than others, but we don’t yet know why: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/immunological-dark-matter-does-it-exist-coronavirus-population-immunity https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/immunological-... Does it help to jump to conclusions about the cause being lockdown variations, or weather, or sunlight, or political leanings? Anybody can cherry-pick their example countries to support their argument, but so far I can find counter-examples to their points whenever I look. I do agree lockdowns have their place (e.g. New Zealand has eliminated the disease using a lockdown, and the Asian success stories).
- robocat 6y agoPollen is apparently another cause of variation: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123133v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123133v... Of course, there are multiple causes, and trying to pin variation in infection rates or deaths on a single factor would be silly. Hopefully we find the driving factors... Spring or vitamin D could explain why Italy doctors are opining that the disease is less deadly now than in March.