Say we believe that the number of people that will be killed be coronavirus is 10^x where x is a gaussian random variable with mean 5 and standard deviation 1.

Say we believe that the number of people that will be killed be coronavirus is 10^x where x is a gaussian random variable with mean 5 and standard deviation 1. What is the expected number of people killed? In the case we believe to be most common, the expected number of people to be killed is 100,000. However, the the mean value of this distribution is 1.4 million, https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=X%7EGaussian%285%2C1%29%2C+EV%5B10%5EX%5D https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=X%7EGaussian%285%2C1%2... This is a the very strongest mathematical case for pessimism that I can give. Any argument that "we should have been less cautious" is automatically bullshit.