3 ms·
Wouldn't that imply an R0 of 10 which is much higher than generally estimated? It should stop once it reaches her immunity and possible sooner if quarantines ar
by tgb 6y ago
Wouldn't that imply an R0 of 10 which is much higher than generally estimated? It should stop once it reaches her immunity and possible sooner if quarantines are successfully placed and the infection dies off. 60% sounds like about what you'd expect, or even a bit high.
- sacred_numbers 6y agoR0 on a ship will always be higher than in pretty much any other situation. Most ships are packed to the gills, and in a gigantic ship like a carrier it will be even worse, since most of the crew will be in poorly ventilated areas rather than on deck.
- raphaelj 6y agoCouldn't it reach such a percentage with a R0 being lower than 10? If your R0 is 2.5, herd immunity will make the current R value go under 1 when 1 - (1 / 2.5) = 60% of the population got infected. While that means that the epidemic will stop growing exponentially, the virus will not stop propagating, as there will still be a non-exponential propagation of the virus (e.g. if 10% of the population is still infectious at the time herd immunity is reached -- when R becomes 1 --, we should expect at least 10% more infections). Or am I missing something?