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Search query data Baidu’s database (http://index.baidu.com/ http://index.baidu.com/) contains logs of web and mobile search query volume in China. User confiden

Search query data Baidu’s database (http://index.baidu.com/ http://index.baidu.com/) contains logs of web and mobile search query volume in China. User confidentiality is maintained, since only the relative term frequency data is available. We obtained daily data for symptom-related searches likely associated with COVID-19 illness in Wuhan from April 2017 to May 2020. We extracted the relative search volumes of the terms “cough” and “diarrhea” using WebPlotDigitizer, v4.215.

dillondoyle 6y ago
wow just searching 'cough' on google trends seems to be pretty accurate just birds-eye view would be cool to read similar research using US data, and the implications on policymaking. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&q=cough,covid%20cough,fever https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&ge...
- starpilot 6y ago
  This always goes up during winter, you also have to control for all the media attention that COVID-19 is getting. People are searching just to be safe even if their symptoms are weak. It might not reflect growing infections, just growing fear.
  - dillondoyle 6y ago
    The spike in the timeframe of the link I put is in mid March and the decreasing rapidly. Plus I think it's also cool at least intuitively the 'trending' states make sense - though I have no idea if they are weighted by population or not.
- mellosouls 6y ago
  It's interesting - tho I've just plugged in China and various periods down to the last 5 years, and there's not an obvious jump beyond the seasonal ones until after December this year.
  - pstrateman 6y ago
    google in china is less than 5% of the search market
    - mellosouls 6y ago
      yeah, I considered that - but its still presumably a large enough sample for the phrases listed in the parent comment to stand out.
hef19898 6y ago
As interesting as this is, but my understanding was that the genetic evolution / development of the virus can be used to determine when it started spreading. Or jumped from animal to human. Or did I understand that wrong? Not saying this study is wrong (no way for me to tell), it just seems a very indirect, and thus error prone, way to look at it.
- mellosouls 6y ago
  I've asked that question as a separate thread above, I think its an important one, at least for lay people like me. There is a suggested reason for the discrepancy (Chinese dishonesty about timelines) tho not an answer (yet) from the researchers who've commented elsewhere here or others with a strictly scientific explanation. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23460742 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23460742

dillondoyle 6y ago

wow just searching 'cough' on google trends seems to be pretty accurate just birds-eye view would be cool to read similar research using US data, and the implications on policymaking. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&q=cough,covid%20cough,fever https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&ge...

starpilot 6y ago
This always goes up during winter, you also have to control for all the media attention that COVID-19 is getting. People are searching just to be safe even if their symptoms are weak. It might not reflect growing infections, just growing fear.
- dillondoyle 6y ago
  The spike in the timeframe of the link I put is in mid March and the decreasing rapidly. Plus I think it's also cool at least intuitively the 'trending' states make sense - though I have no idea if they are weighted by population or not.
mellosouls 6y ago
It's interesting - tho I've just plugged in China and various periods down to the last 5 years, and there's not an obvious jump beyond the seasonal ones until after December this year.
- pstrateman 6y ago
  google in china is less than 5% of the search market
  - mellosouls 6y ago
    yeah, I considered that - but its still presumably a large enough sample for the phrases listed in the parent comment to stand out.

hef19898 6y ago

As interesting as this is, but my understanding was that the genetic evolution / development of the virus can be used to determine when it started spreading. Or jumped from animal to human. Or did I understand that wrong? Not saying this study is wrong (no way for me to tell), it just seems a very indirect, and thus error prone, way to look at it.

mellosouls 6y ago
I've asked that question as a separate thread above, I think its an important one, at least for lay people like me. There is a suggested reason for the discrepancy (Chinese dishonesty about timelines) tho not an answer (yet) from the researchers who've commented elsewhere here or others with a strictly scientific explanation. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23460742 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23460742