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It sounds like you don't know what "loss ratio" means in the context of an insurance company. Loss ratio is the % of premiums collected that are paid back out i

by harryh 6y ago

It sounds like you don't know what "loss ratio" means in the context of an insurance company. Loss ratio is the % of premiums collected that are paid back out in claims. If the number is below 100%, then your core insurance business is profitable Of course, this doesn't mean your company is. Insurance companies have many expenses beyond paid claims. But loss ratio should never get to 0% and, by definition, can't be negative. 72% is pretty good for a relatively new insurance business.

gen220 6y ago
Here to echo. I work in insurance and 72% is actually very good when you consider (1) their trajectory of how long it took them to get there (2) how strongly they're investing in growth, which is very expensive.
- nikanj 6y ago
  How to get there: 1) Grow really big with VC money (You'll need this for step 3) 2) Stop paying out claims with made-up reasons 3) If someone sues you to get their payout, use your massive resources to bankrupt them with legal fees
- phonon 6y ago
  The 72% does not include overhead or sales and marketing, just losses and LAE. I wouldn't call that very good. Their combined ratio is more like 200%
  - divbzero 6y ago
    Thanks. I was looking for their combined ratio. I suppose it’s not surprising that overhead is high for a fast-growing company. As with many startups, GAAP only reveals part of the story and more fine-grained metrics are needed to gauge potential future profitability. For those unfamiliar with the combined ratio, taking a stab at an explanation by simplified analogy… For most normal companies: Revenue − Cost of goods ——————————————————— Gross income − Operating costs ——————————————————— Operating income − Interest expense ——————————————————— Net income For insurance companies: Premiums − Losses ——————————————————— “Gross income” − “Operating costs” ——————————————————— “Operating income” + Investment income ——————————————————— Net income Most normal companies use profitability metrics: Gross margin = Gross income / Revenue Operating margin = Operating income / Revenue Insurance companies use inverted expense ratios: Loss ratio = Losses / Premiums Combined ratio = (Losses + “Operating costs”) / Premiums (The above is obviously simplified, for the sake of illustrating by analogy. For instance, insurance companies usually won’t have “Gross income” in their financial statements, and “Operating costs” and “Operating income” are typically called “Underwriting expense” and “Underwriting gain”.)
    - phonon 6y ago
      In their most recent quarter-- Net earned premium 25.3 Net investment income 0.9 ------------------------------------- Total revenue 26.2 Expense Loss and loss adjustment expense, net 18.2 Other insurance expense 3.3 Sales and marketing 19.2 Technology development 3.5 General and administrative 18.2 ------------------------------------- Total expense 62.4 Loss before income taxes (36.2)
      - gen220 6y ago
        18.2 / 25.3 ain’t bad. Sales and marketing at 19.2 seems a bit high, but I guess they’re doubling down on growth, and it implies they have a long runway. The administrative costs is the one that you’ll want to see grow logarithmically, as 25.3 goes up, and it’s not unbelievable that it will.
        phonon 6y ago
        > 18.2 / 25.3 ain’t bad. It's somewhat worse than average, but trending in the right direction. Will give a qualified "OK". > Sales and marketing at 19.2 seems a bit high, but I guess they’re doubling down on growth, and it implies they have a long runway. It's very high, relative to written premium. You can always buy market share in insurance by increasing commissions and/or increasing marketing, and it's okay to overspend in the beginning for branding/momentum purposes, but it's not sustainable. They raised $500 MM, and spent $200 MM (and much of the remaining $300 MM is needed for statutory surplus) so who knows how much longer they can sustain that. Administrative and tech I'm somewhat sanguine about, as long as they keep moving upmarket to Homeowners' insurance. Renters' insurance is never going to have a great margin. Tech is at least decent, and hopefully the kernel for expanding easily into other markets.
        gen220 6y ago
        Agreed on all points. The only caveat I’d add is that they might not need all of that 300mm if they have a decent reinsurance deal on the books or in the hand. My guess is that they plan on keeping all of the expense rows more or less the same, while growing into new markets to increase their volume.
- a_quigley 6y ago
  > how strongly they're investing in growth The combined LR isn't 72%. The combined LR includes marketing and sales. I'd argue the pure LR should be evaluated without respect to growth. If you want to adjust for growth look at the combined LR which doesn't look too pretty. But if they can manage to get that LTV it will be a big success
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
aquaphile 6y ago
That misses a 3 key points: 1) 72% pure loss ratio is ok, but normally for these lines I'd aim for mid 60s. Nothing special to see here.. 2) It took them THREE YEARS to get there, and they were exceedingly poor at selecting and managing risk for 2 years. 161% loss ratio??!! That is flunky-level poor risk management. If they had a reinsurer, that reinsurer is probably very unhappy and unlikely to renew the treaty. 3) The combined ratio is really poor. They are hemorrhaging cash because of high G&A and high sales & marketing. Again, after 3 years of effort. This indicates they have not operated any more efficiently that other legacy insurers, AND that Lemonade is spending aggressively to acquire customers. Lemonade's competitors have vastly more financial resources and market reach, can cross-sell more products, can equal or better its tech experience (USAA, Esurance), operate more efficiently (every major direct P&C writer), and acquire customers at scale at equivalent or better acquisition costs. For the Lemonade investment thesis to work, one must believe they will eventually address these weaknesses at scale, and that they will be given a software valuation multiple when they are really just another direct writer of insurance.
- aquigley 6y ago
  Why does LR even matter? They cede 75% of their risk so they operate more like a broker. I reckon the reason they don't cede more risk is because the re-insurers want them to have skin in the game. The re-insurers could get adversely selected if Lemonade can't price well
  - aquaphile 6y ago
    LR always matters, whether or not one cedes a portion of the risk. An insurance program has little value unless it is profitable over time. While some large P&C insurers historically ran their book of business at break-even, and made it up on investment income (reflected in their combined ratio), that is not a viable option given current interest rates.

by harryh 6y ago

gen220 6y ago

Here to echo. I work in insurance and 72% is actually very good when you consider (1) their trajectory of how long it took them to get there (2) how strongly they're investing in growth, which is very expensive.

nikanj 6y ago
How to get there: 1) Grow really big with VC money (You'll need this for step 3) 2) Stop paying out claims with made-up reasons 3) If someone sues you to get their payout, use your massive resources to bankrupt them with legal fees
phonon 6y ago
The 72% does not include overhead or sales and marketing, just losses and LAE. I wouldn't call that very good. Their combined ratio is more like 200%
- divbzero 6y ago
  Thanks. I was looking for their combined ratio. I suppose it’s not surprising that overhead is high for a fast-growing company. As with many startups, GAAP only reveals part of the story and more fine-grained metrics are needed to gauge potential future profitability. For those unfamiliar with the combined ratio, taking a stab at an explanation by simplified analogy… For most normal companies: Revenue − Cost of goods ——————————————————— Gross income − Operating costs ——————————————————— Operating income − Interest expense ——————————————————— Net income For insurance companies: Premiums − Losses ——————————————————— “Gross income” − “Operating costs” ——————————————————— “Operating income” + Investment income ——————————————————— Net income Most normal companies use profitability metrics: Gross margin = Gross income / Revenue Operating margin = Operating income / Revenue Insurance companies use inverted expense ratios: Loss ratio = Losses / Premiums Combined ratio = (Losses + “Operating costs”) / Premiums (The above is obviously simplified, for the sake of illustrating by analogy. For instance, insurance companies usually won’t have “Gross income” in their financial statements, and “Operating costs” and “Operating income” are typically called “Underwriting expense” and “Underwriting gain”.)
  - phonon 6y ago
    In their most recent quarter-- Net earned premium 25.3 Net investment income 0.9 ------------------------------------- Total revenue 26.2 Expense Loss and loss adjustment expense, net 18.2 Other insurance expense 3.3 Sales and marketing 19.2 Technology development 3.5 General and administrative 18.2 ------------------------------------- Total expense 62.4 Loss before income taxes (36.2)
    - gen220 6y ago
      18.2 / 25.3 ain’t bad. Sales and marketing at 19.2 seems a bit high, but I guess they’re doubling down on growth, and it implies they have a long runway. The administrative costs is the one that you’ll want to see grow logarithmically, as 25.3 goes up, and it’s not unbelievable that it will.
      - phonon 6y ago
        > 18.2 / 25.3 ain’t bad. It's somewhat worse than average, but trending in the right direction. Will give a qualified "OK". > Sales and marketing at 19.2 seems a bit high, but I guess they’re doubling down on growth, and it implies they have a long runway. It's very high, relative to written premium. You can always buy market share in insurance by increasing commissions and/or increasing marketing, and it's okay to overspend in the beginning for branding/momentum purposes, but it's not sustainable. They raised $500 MM, and spent $200 MM (and much of the remaining $300 MM is needed for statutory surplus) so who knows how much longer they can sustain that. Administrative and tech I'm somewhat sanguine about, as long as they keep moving upmarket to Homeowners' insurance. Renters' insurance is never going to have a great margin. Tech is at least decent, and hopefully the kernel for expanding easily into other markets.
        gen220 6y ago
        Agreed on all points. The only caveat I’d add is that they might not need all of that 300mm if they have a decent reinsurance deal on the books or in the hand. My guess is that they plan on keeping all of the expense rows more or less the same, while growing into new markets to increase their volume.
a_quigley 6y ago
> how strongly they're investing in growth The combined LR isn't 72%. The combined LR includes marketing and sales. I'd argue the pure LR should be evaluated without respect to growth. If you want to adjust for growth look at the combined LR which doesn't look too pretty. But if they can manage to get that LTV it will be a big success

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

aquaphile 6y ago

That misses a 3 key points: 1) 72% pure loss ratio is ok, but normally for these lines I'd aim for mid 60s. Nothing special to see here.. 2) It took them THREE YEARS to get there, and they were exceedingly poor at selecting and managing risk for 2 years. 161% loss ratio??!! That is flunky-level poor risk management. If they had a reinsurer, that reinsurer is probably very unhappy and unlikely to renew the treaty. 3) The combined ratio is really poor. They are hemorrhaging cash because of high G&A and high sales & marketing. Again, after 3 years of effort. This indicates they have not operated any more efficiently that other legacy insurers, AND that Lemonade is spending aggressively to acquire customers. Lemonade's competitors have vastly more financial resources and market reach, can cross-sell more products, can equal or better its tech experience (USAA, Esurance), operate more efficiently (every major direct P&C writer), and acquire customers at scale at equivalent or better acquisition costs. For the Lemonade investment thesis to work, one must believe they will eventually address these weaknesses at scale, and that they will be given a software valuation multiple when they are really just another direct writer of insurance.

aquigley 6y ago
Why does LR even matter? They cede 75% of their risk so they operate more like a broker. I reckon the reason they don't cede more risk is because the re-insurers want them to have skin in the game. The re-insurers could get adversely selected if Lemonade can't price well
- aquaphile 6y ago
  LR always matters, whether or not one cedes a portion of the risk. An insurance program has little value unless it is profitable over time. While some large P&C insurers historically ran their book of business at break-even, and made it up on investment income (reflected in their combined ratio), that is not a viable option given current interest rates.