5 ms·

At this point what would it require for you to believe it wasn't research gone wrong?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
tim333 6y ago
Identify an animal reservoir? The chinese to be open and say come see the lab and here's the research we were doing rather than treatening to arrest people?
- baddox 6y ago
  There seems to be broad agreement among experts that bats are the primary reservoir, and less agreement about an intermediate reservoir (although pangolins are commonly proposed). We certainly have wildlife sequences from bats that are plausibly recent close relatives to SARS-CoV-2. As far as the Chinese lab goes, I suspect that any research they release or international inspections they allow would just be dismissed by many people as evidence that they must be confident in their ability to cover up the horrible things those people have already concluded without evidence.
downerending 6y ago
We'll likely never know. There appears to be evidence that is hard to explain, though. Hopefully that will be investigated as deeply as it can be, rather than just swept under the rug.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  Likely never know the answer, or the burden of proof for accepting an answer?
  - downerending 6y ago
    The former.
    - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
      So is there any possible way to invalidate the "made in a lab" theory?
      - downerending 6y ago
        No. That said, IIRC, there was some paper claiming that there was some binding (the spikes?) that appeared to be more specific to human than to any of the animals suspected of passing to us. That's at least rather surprising, if you imagine this to be an entirely natural event. And it might support the idea that there was a lab step (accident?) somewhere along the way.
        SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
        Ok, so we're determining that you can easily keep the conspiracy going, with relatively minor evidence.
        downerending 6y ago
        I'm not a microbiologist, and it's unlikely that you are one either. I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, and it doesn't really matter what the truth is. If a Chinese lab blew it, they're not going to fess up, and there's nothing we can do about it anyway, so it's pointless to get upset about it. It's interesting to idly discuss, in an HN sort of way, but my advice is to ignore it and continue to live your life. Or at least move on to this week's outrage-fest.
      - tim333 6y ago
        The best would be to trace how it came about naturally. For instance with Sars 1 they "traced the virus through the intermediary of Asian palm civets to cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in Yunnan province." (Wikipedia) The covid virus looks like a mix of bat and pangolin coronaviruses so it's possible that similar tracing will be done. People are no doubt trying.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

Identify an animal reservoir? The chinese to be open and say come see the lab and here's the research we were doing rather than treatening to arrest people?

baddox 6y ago
There seems to be broad agreement among experts that bats are the primary reservoir, and less agreement about an intermediate reservoir (although pangolins are commonly proposed). We certainly have wildlife sequences from bats that are plausibly recent close relatives to SARS-CoV-2. As far as the Chinese lab goes, I suspect that any research they release or international inspections they allow would just be dismissed by many people as evidence that they must be confident in their ability to cover up the horrible things those people have already concluded without evidence.

downerending 6y ago

We'll likely never know. There appears to be evidence that is hard to explain, though. Hopefully that will be investigated as deeply as it can be, rather than just swept under the rug.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
Likely never know the answer, or the burden of proof for accepting an answer?
- downerending 6y ago
  The former.
  - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
    So is there any possible way to invalidate the "made in a lab" theory?
    - downerending 6y ago
      No. That said, IIRC, there was some paper claiming that there was some binding (the spikes?) that appeared to be more specific to human than to any of the animals suspected of passing to us. That's at least rather surprising, if you imagine this to be an entirely natural event. And it might support the idea that there was a lab step (accident?) somewhere along the way.
      - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
        Ok, so we're determining that you can easily keep the conspiracy going, with relatively minor evidence.
        downerending 6y ago
        I'm not a microbiologist, and it's unlikely that you are one either. I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, and it doesn't really matter what the truth is. If a Chinese lab blew it, they're not going to fess up, and there's nothing we can do about it anyway, so it's pointless to get upset about it. It's interesting to idly discuss, in an HN sort of way, but my advice is to ignore it and continue to live your life. Or at least move on to this week's outrage-fest.
    - tim333 6y ago
      The best would be to trace how it came about naturally. For instance with Sars 1 they "traced the virus through the intermediary of Asian palm civets to cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in Yunnan province." (Wikipedia) The covid virus looks like a mix of bat and pangolin coronaviruses so it's possible that similar tracing will be done. People are no doubt trying.