Its important to take this napkin math with a grain of salt, as even the author admits they could be wildly off with even a small change in transmission rates:

Its important to take this napkin math with a grain of salt, as even the author admits they could be wildly off with even a small change in transmission rates: "Swapping R0 from 0.95 to 0.9 would decrease estimated downstream infections from 54k-108k to 30k-60k and estimated downstream deaths from 270-1080 to 150-600. Generally, these back-of-the-envelop calculations should be taken with a huge grain of salt. We don't yet have data." There is also an unstated assumption that none of these people would get infected if they didnt attend the protests, which seems like a big omission.