4 ms·

I don't think many people actually think that. We've said publicly many times that we'd be pleasantly surprised if the success rate was as high as 50%.

by pg 16y ago

jijoy 16y ago
hmm. Then that's really contradicts this post.
- robryan 16y ago
  I think that for the average startup your chance of success would improve in a statistically significant way but this would be really hard to quantify as if you get into YC you were probably already more likely to succeed on your own anyway. It also depends a lot on how success is defined, in the return on investment for investors or in how it effects/improves the founders/employees lives. Getting a talent acquisition and working on something awesome at Facebook or similar could be a big success for the founders even though there is little there for the investors.
- pr0zac 16y ago
  I don't really think that the post implies that belief at all. This line in particular demonstrates the number of people already IN YC who are still rather unsure about things: "one of us remarked that looking at everyone else in the batch, they're still in disbelief that they got in at all, and a bunch of us starred the comment in agreement, even those batch mates that I think are amazing"
- ryannielsen 16y ago
  I'm curious: how did you extrapolate from Wil's points on how to be a successful YC applicant that he also thought all YC companies are going to be successful? These are qualities for successful founders, not successful companies. There are a myriad of reasons why a startup might fail. Having founders with the traits outlined in this essay helps prevent the founders from being one of those reasons. That's why YC looks for these traits. Since YC screens applicants, they can select the ones they feel are best suited for success. Based on past experience, those with the traits in this essay are the most successful. Minimizing the founders as the source of failure means YC might have more successes, on average. As pg said, even YC would be surprised if their "success" rate is more than 50%. Being accepted into YC doesn't guarantee success... Creating a successful company is hard!
cperciva 16y ago
You may be pleased by a 50% success rate, but how many of the 50% who don't succeed will be pleased? (Not just being facetious -- I've heard stories about YCers whose companies failed being hired by other YC companies or otherwise finding good positions as a result of their YC experience, but a few anecdotes is no substitute for data.)
- abstractbill 16y ago
  I've heard stories about YCers whose companies failed being hired by other YC companies I've heard successful YC companies referred to as being like piranhas (or something like that). Any time another YC company shows signs of failing, the others tend to wonder about hiring opportunities.
  - xentronium 16y ago
    Is it a bad thing? In worst case you'll be working with other people with similar mindset to yours which is not bad at all.
    - abstractbill 16y ago
      No, it's not a bad thing at all - I've only heard people say it that way as a joke.
    - malandrew 16y ago
      Nope, it's being a good entrepreneur. Because if you don't ambulance chase, you may be end up being the next one chased.
- webwright 16y ago
  Most of them. Those who don't succeed have a big pile of successful startups who know them well and will hire them (if they stil have the startup bug). They've gotten a guided tour of the valley-style startup path-- next time will be easier. It'd be an interesting experiment to track down all of the YC companies that have fully failed to date and ask them, "knowing what you know now, do you wish you'd chosen a different path?" My guess is that 90%+ would do YC again in a heartbeat (though perhaps with a different co-founder or different market/idea).

I don't think many people actually think that. We've said publicly many times that we'd be pleasantly surprised if the success rate was as high as 50%.

by pg 16y ago

I don't think many people actually think that. We've said publicly many times that we'd be pleasantly surprised if the success rate was as high as 50%.

jijoy 16y ago

hmm. Then that's really contradicts this post.

robryan 16y ago
I think that for the average startup your chance of success would improve in a statistically significant way but this would be really hard to quantify as if you get into YC you were probably already more likely to succeed on your own anyway. It also depends a lot on how success is defined, in the return on investment for investors or in how it effects/improves the founders/employees lives. Getting a talent acquisition and working on something awesome at Facebook or similar could be a big success for the founders even though there is little there for the investors.
pr0zac 16y ago
I don't really think that the post implies that belief at all. This line in particular demonstrates the number of people already IN YC who are still rather unsure about things: "one of us remarked that looking at everyone else in the batch, they're still in disbelief that they got in at all, and a bunch of us starred the comment in agreement, even those batch mates that I think are amazing"
ryannielsen 16y ago
I'm curious: how did you extrapolate from Wil's points on how to be a successful YC applicant that he also thought all YC companies are going to be successful? These are qualities for successful founders, not successful companies. There are a myriad of reasons why a startup might fail. Having founders with the traits outlined in this essay helps prevent the founders from being one of those reasons. That's why YC looks for these traits. Since YC screens applicants, they can select the ones they feel are best suited for success. Based on past experience, those with the traits in this essay are the most successful. Minimizing the founders as the source of failure means YC might have more successes, on average. As pg said, even YC would be surprised if their "success" rate is more than 50%. Being accepted into YC doesn't guarantee success... Creating a successful company is hard!

cperciva 16y ago

You may be pleased by a 50% success rate, but how many of the 50% who don't succeed will be pleased? (Not just being facetious -- I've heard stories about YCers whose companies failed being hired by other YC companies or otherwise finding good positions as a result of their YC experience, but a few anecdotes is no substitute for data.)

abstractbill 16y ago
I've heard stories about YCers whose companies failed being hired by other YC companies I've heard successful YC companies referred to as being like piranhas (or something like that). Any time another YC company shows signs of failing, the others tend to wonder about hiring opportunities.
- xentronium 16y ago
  Is it a bad thing? In worst case you'll be working with other people with similar mindset to yours which is not bad at all.
  - abstractbill 16y ago
    No, it's not a bad thing at all - I've only heard people say it that way as a joke.
  - malandrew 16y ago
    Nope, it's being a good entrepreneur. Because if you don't ambulance chase, you may be end up being the next one chased.
webwright 16y ago
Most of them. Those who don't succeed have a big pile of successful startups who know them well and will hire them (if they stil have the startup bug). They've gotten a guided tour of the valley-style startup path-- next time will be easier. It'd be an interesting experiment to track down all of the YC companies that have fully failed to date and ask them, "knowing what you know now, do you wish you'd chosen a different path?" My guess is that 90%+ would do YC again in a heartbeat (though perhaps with a different co-founder or different market/idea).