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> The ability to act with coordination across a group of drones that the article mentions will be hard to beat Very easy to beat via even somewhat advanced rad

by m0zg 6y ago

> The ability to act with coordination across a group of drones that the article mentions will be hard to beat Very easy to beat via even somewhat advanced radioelectronic warfare. Can't coordinate if you can't communicate. This is the Achilles heel of all these "advanced weapons systems" that look so great in the powerpoint slides but are only useful against enemies which don't have any weaponry built after mid-80s.

krapht 6y ago
Why are you so confident that communications jamming is easy? The person initiating the communications has all the cards; while the person trying to jam is stuck trying to blast power over a constantly shifting comms frequency and come in via an antenna sidelobe.
- m0zg 6y ago
  I didn't mean it was easy "easy". But it's more than doable. And it's been done in Syria: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2018/05/01/russia-syria-electronic-warfare/ https://www.thedefensepost.com/2018/05/01/russia-syria-elect.... It's also very asymmetric, similar to e.g. advanced airplanes vs anti-aircraft rockets, or aircraft carriers vs submarines. One of the options is way cheaper, and makes the other not very viable if shit hits the fan.
  - krapht 6y ago
    You speak very confidently but I would like a technical discussion of the points I raised. Even in the link you posted, there is the following: "The U.S. is not getting the message, however, because no one in the U.S. military believes Russia is actually capable of jamming advanced drones and missiles, according to Valeriano." How do you defeat a drone swarm using frequency agile communications over narrow beams with cheap equipment, such that it's asymmetric in cost?
    - fit2rule 6y ago
      Well, seems like the jury is still out in many quarters, but there is a secret Cold War going on around electromagnetic jamming tech, and the Russians have the lead: https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-mystery-weapon-claim-seen-sign-military-weakness https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-mystery-weapon-claim-...
    - m0zg 6y ago
      Of course they'll _say_ they "don't believe" it works. Yet they ceased operations in the region for a few days when Russia turned this gear on. It's propaganda, of course it works. Not as good as the other side claims (that too is propaganda), but well enough to fuck shit up.
neltnerb 6y ago
I don't know if it's true or if it works, but the article addresses this by saying that they can go into I guess non-networked mode where no one, not even the operators, can contact it. If it gets certain conditions it will send out a message, but otherwise it's that level of autonomy they're assuming.
- m0zg 6y ago
  Yes, but then by definition they aren't communicating, and their effectiveness is massively reduced. They could, for instance, be attacking the same target or even a decoy (wasting ammo), or fly into a trap that other drones would have warned them about. There are also no drones currently that can make firing decisions on their own, thank god, this small scale test notwithstaning. The problems AI has to solve are hard enough even without radioelectronic warfare or adversarial, AI-specific countermeasures. With it they become even less tractable.
  - neltnerb 6y ago
    I agree that it will be an arms race between AI researchers in competing militaries between ease of getting around defenses and making attacks ineffective. Of course any country not in on it will be far, far, far, far behind. The idea of a drone swarm based air force going up against a less capable foe seems overwhelmingly superior. I'm sure there will be a give and take as people figure out how to disrupt them better, but I also have no reason to think there won't be ways to compensate for a countermeasure after it's understood. Or we could just, I dunno, stop having so many wars... but I'm kind of at the point where it's obvious enough that every major world power is working on it that I'm not sure what else the US can do. Not building $1B fighters seems like a good decision all around if there's any other way... that just seems stupid, no offense intended to anyone working on it but it just seems unreasonable on the face of it if you can make hundreds of unmanned drones instead (or pay teachers more of course...).

by m0zg 6y ago

krapht 6y ago

Why are you so confident that communications jamming is easy? The person initiating the communications has all the cards; while the person trying to jam is stuck trying to blast power over a constantly shifting comms frequency and come in via an antenna sidelobe.

m0zg 6y ago
I didn't mean it was easy "easy". But it's more than doable. And it's been done in Syria: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2018/05/01/russia-syria-electronic-warfare/ https://www.thedefensepost.com/2018/05/01/russia-syria-elect.... It's also very asymmetric, similar to e.g. advanced airplanes vs anti-aircraft rockets, or aircraft carriers vs submarines. One of the options is way cheaper, and makes the other not very viable if shit hits the fan.
- krapht 6y ago
  You speak very confidently but I would like a technical discussion of the points I raised. Even in the link you posted, there is the following: "The U.S. is not getting the message, however, because no one in the U.S. military believes Russia is actually capable of jamming advanced drones and missiles, according to Valeriano." How do you defeat a drone swarm using frequency agile communications over narrow beams with cheap equipment, such that it's asymmetric in cost?
  - fit2rule 6y ago
    Well, seems like the jury is still out in many quarters, but there is a secret Cold War going on around electromagnetic jamming tech, and the Russians have the lead: https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-mystery-weapon-claim-seen-sign-military-weakness https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-mystery-weapon-claim-...
  - m0zg 6y ago
    Of course they'll _say_ they "don't believe" it works. Yet they ceased operations in the region for a few days when Russia turned this gear on. It's propaganda, of course it works. Not as good as the other side claims (that too is propaganda), but well enough to fuck shit up.

neltnerb 6y ago

I don't know if it's true or if it works, but the article addresses this by saying that they can go into I guess non-networked mode where no one, not even the operators, can contact it. If it gets certain conditions it will send out a message, but otherwise it's that level of autonomy they're assuming.

m0zg 6y ago
Yes, but then by definition they aren't communicating, and their effectiveness is massively reduced. They could, for instance, be attacking the same target or even a decoy (wasting ammo), or fly into a trap that other drones would have warned them about. There are also no drones currently that can make firing decisions on their own, thank god, this small scale test notwithstaning. The problems AI has to solve are hard enough even without radioelectronic warfare or adversarial, AI-specific countermeasures. With it they become even less tractable.
- neltnerb 6y ago
  I agree that it will be an arms race between AI researchers in competing militaries between ease of getting around defenses and making attacks ineffective. Of course any country not in on it will be far, far, far, far behind. The idea of a drone swarm based air force going up against a less capable foe seems overwhelmingly superior. I'm sure there will be a give and take as people figure out how to disrupt them better, but I also have no reason to think there won't be ways to compensate for a countermeasure after it's understood. Or we could just, I dunno, stop having so many wars... but I'm kind of at the point where it's obvious enough that every major world power is working on it that I'm not sure what else the US can do. Not building $1B fighters seems like a good decision all around if there's any other way... that just seems stupid, no offense intended to anyone working on it but it just seems unreasonable on the face of it if you can make hundreds of unmanned drones instead (or pay teachers more of course...).