3 ms·
Maybe the 20% of the population was more susceptible? It seems that the outbreak was concentrated in long-term care facilities, healthcare workers (who receive
by in_cahoots 6y ago
Maybe the 20% of the population was more susceptible? It seems that the outbreak was concentrated in long-term care facilities, healthcare workers (who received a larger viral load than average), and the poor (who tend to have more pre-existing conditions). If the 20% is not randomly distributed the math can still work out.
- JamesBarney 6y agoThe math could work out, but if that was true then that means if NYC got 5 times as many infections the number of fatalities would barely change. I would find that hard to believe and I also doubt they would have enough data to validate that type of hypothesis. We're still guessing at the number of people infected, not to mention how old are they, what pre-existing conditions did they have, how do those pre-existing condition affect Covid-19 mortality in different age groups, what viral load did they receive, etc..
- in_cahoots 6y agoFair points! You could probably make an estimate with a stratified approach but if 0.3% have already died there’s no wiggle room for additional deaths.