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For context, Átila Iamarino predicted one million Coronavirus deaths. He became a YouTube celebrity after his alarmist (and completely wrong) predictions. Citi

For context, Átila Iamarino predicted one million Coronavirus deaths. He became a YouTube celebrity after his alarmist (and completely wrong) predictions. Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. In terms of deaths/million people, Brazil is currently 20th on the list. Nothing to be proud of, but should provide some perspective.

LorenPechtel 6y ago
One million deaths from the virus in Brazil is only .5% of the population. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
piva00 6y ago
Given that Brazil has run just a bit less than 1 million tests so far with 675k cases (and counting) testing positive you can be sure that every number is underreported (with death counts probably being the most accurate as it's the hardest to fudge around). Apart from that the Health Ministry is hiding the numbers for acute respiratory syndrome deaths (which could be seasonally-adjusted and an inference to CoViD-19 deaths be made). He might be an alarmist but models all around the world are wrong and being updated constantly to keep on track with reality, you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection. > Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers, the growth of total numbers is explosive. Total population doesn't matter as it's barely the upper bound limit of total number of cases a given region might get, how the numbers are accruing towards this total is the most important information and the only way to keep track of that is by keeping track of the total cases. It doesn't matter that Brazil has a low ratio of deaths/million if the cases are still growing exponentially as deaths will always lag behind. Brazil's curve is accelerating, numbers are severely underreported, I heard the same kind of talking points in early March around death rates, etc. and the situation has steadily got worse by the day. Trying to paint a better picture by selecting a ratio-based metric doesn't seem to be the way to analyse Brazil's current situation, it's worsening and measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government, it's a brewing disaster.
- pvaldes 6y ago
  Countries with higher populations having more deaths is expected, but the population density plays also a big factor. Brazil should be able at least to create islands of isolate population but urban suburbs are very problematic. Bigger means also more resources to fight against the problem in the case than the government would want to do it and save people. If they really want that, a president taking mass baths proudly showing no protection measures should be asked to stop it, or removed ASAP.
  - andrenth 6y ago
    > Bigger means also more resources I don't think that follows, especially in a country which was just starting to show recovery from the 2014 depression.
- andrenth 6y ago
  > you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection He is a YouTuber who gets views from alarmist predictions. To me that disqualifies him from the debate. > Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers I have never any said numbers should be disregarded, but the whole picture should be kept in mind. This is not "trying to paint a better picture", but simply to put things in perspective. For example, by looking only at the current absolute numbers, you ignore that the first cases in Brazil happened at least one month after the ones in Europe. In other words, we are now where Europe was a month ago, i.e. still growing in cases. > measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government Can you cite one? All control measures in Brazil have been defined by Governors and Mayors, as ruled by the Supreme Court. If they're been lifted, it's definitely not being done by the Federal Government.
- dorgo 6y ago
  > Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers If total deaths grow exponentially then deaths/million also grow exponentially, do they not? So you can disregard total numbers and still pay attention to exponential growth.

LorenPechtel 6y ago

One million deaths from the virus in Brazil is only .5% of the population. That wouldn't surprise me at all.

piva00 6y ago

Given that Brazil has run just a bit less than 1 million tests so far with 675k cases (and counting) testing positive you can be sure that every number is underreported (with death counts probably being the most accurate as it's the hardest to fudge around). Apart from that the Health Ministry is hiding the numbers for acute respiratory syndrome deaths (which could be seasonally-adjusted and an inference to CoViD-19 deaths be made). He might be an alarmist but models all around the world are wrong and being updated constantly to keep on track with reality, you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection. > Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers, the growth of total numbers is explosive. Total population doesn't matter as it's barely the upper bound limit of total number of cases a given region might get, how the numbers are accruing towards this total is the most important information and the only way to keep track of that is by keeping track of the total cases. It doesn't matter that Brazil has a low ratio of deaths/million if the cases are still growing exponentially as deaths will always lag behind. Brazil's curve is accelerating, numbers are severely underreported, I heard the same kind of talking points in early March around death rates, etc. and the situation has steadily got worse by the day. Trying to paint a better picture by selecting a ratio-based metric doesn't seem to be the way to analyse Brazil's current situation, it's worsening and measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government, it's a brewing disaster.

pvaldes 6y ago
Countries with higher populations having more deaths is expected, but the population density plays also a big factor. Brazil should be able at least to create islands of isolate population but urban suburbs are very problematic. Bigger means also more resources to fight against the problem in the case than the government would want to do it and save people. If they really want that, a president taking mass baths proudly showing no protection measures should be asked to stop it, or removed ASAP.
- andrenth 6y ago
  > Bigger means also more resources I don't think that follows, especially in a country which was just starting to show recovery from the 2014 depression.
andrenth 6y ago
> you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection He is a YouTuber who gets views from alarmist predictions. To me that disqualifies him from the debate. > Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers I have never any said numbers should be disregarded, but the whole picture should be kept in mind. This is not "trying to paint a better picture", but simply to put things in perspective. For example, by looking only at the current absolute numbers, you ignore that the first cases in Brazil happened at least one month after the ones in Europe. In other words, we are now where Europe was a month ago, i.e. still growing in cases. > measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government Can you cite one? All control measures in Brazil have been defined by Governors and Mayors, as ruled by the Supreme Court. If they're been lifted, it's definitely not being done by the Federal Government.
dorgo 6y ago
> Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers If total deaths grow exponentially then deaths/million also grow exponentially, do they not? So you can disregard total numbers and still pay attention to exponential growth.