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Also, to expand on this point: > My friends who ”made” it posted three quality videos a week. For 1-2 years. For every ten people who did this, maybe one made

Also, to expand on this point: > My friends who ”made” it posted three quality videos a week. For 1-2 years. For every ten people who did this, maybe one made it big. There's no guarantee the grind will pay off.

tomhoward 6y ago
This seems to imply that success in this field is randomly assigned rather than being attained through persistence and attention to the audience. For anyone who presumes this to be true, it will be inevitable. Anyone who produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, pays good attention to how their content is received, continues to adapt their content to what they find the audience wants, and is attentive in engaging with their audience's messages/comments/etc, will find success eventually. The people who make it big do all those things. Those who don't have generally gotten discouraged too early, before they've put enough effort and persistence into those key ingredients. Sure, natural charisma helps, and can make it look like some creators just "got lucky" with huge growth from the start. But plenty of creators started out seeming awkward and unpolished early on, but over time were able to improve their delivery style and other aspects of their production, and hit it big eventually. (Edited to clarify position.)
- rdgthree 6y ago
  Agreed, but I don't think you're necessarily in disagreement with your parent. Some people struggle to understand how to improve on their weaknesses and think they're paying attention to how their content is received, adapting to their audience, etc, but in reality they're missing the mark by a mile. In this sense it's essentially entrepreneurship. The founders who are simply not doing a good job don't always realize it. Some people will continue their efforts for years without knowing it's their own inability holding them back.
  - tomhoward 6y ago
    The parent commenter wasn't clear about whether they meant success comes mostly down to random chance vs persistence and responsiveness to the audience. I've expanded (and edited) my comment to try and clarify what I think is an important distinction. But to be clear, I highly doubt it's true that for every creator who builds a big audience, there's another nine (or even one or two) who put in the same effort, persistence and attention to their audience, over at least 2 years, and get nowhere. I can believe that many start out then get discouraged and give up early, because they don't know how to gauge their results and improve their product, but that's a different issue.
    - rdgthree 6y ago
      I agree largely, I'm just not sure that insufficient effort/persistence so heavily outweighs low quality content as a reason for failure over time. I'd imagine there are actually a large amount of "zombie" YouTubers that consistently put out videos that very few people (relatively) end up watching. A lot of startups end up in this "zombie" state rather than shutting down[0]. So I agree most probably just get discouraged and give up early. But I can easily see 9 long-time "zombie" YouTubers for every channel with a big audience. [0]https://yclist.com/ https://yclist.com/
      - tomhoward 6y ago
        I guess it's that kind of topic where once you discuss it enough you reach consensus on a position that is neither particularly controversial nor insightful :) I gather the people who've found my earlier comments disagreeable are assuming I'm advocating that people blindly persist at something for countless years, even if they see no signs of success, which of course I'm not. My point assumes that by doing something with sufficient dedication for a sufficient amount of time, you'll learn the necessary skills, including learning how to learn, and learning how to gauge success, and learning when it's best to quit and try something else. I actually don't think it's likely there's huge numbers of "zombie" YouTubers, slogging away for years with no success. Sure, plenty of stuff gets posted that gets very few views, but not by people who are serious about making a career of it. Career-focused people either see signs of success or realise they need to find a new career path. As for the YC list, I know a lot about that list as my company is on it, as are several others run by people I know. There aren't many actual zombie companies on that list. There are companies that didn't become unicorns, but did become solid small-medium businesses that employ a decent number of people and provide important services to their customers, and will likely eventually be acquired for a decent return to the founders and investors. And there are others that have been abandoned, but provided valuable lessons to their founders, which helped equip them for greater success in the next stages of their career. My opinions expressed above are from having spent 10+ years running and observing others running startups, and by seeing what persistence and long-term success look like. I've never seen persistence work out badly for people, as long as they are adequately able to gauge their success along the way. I get saddened at the thought that people with the potential to do great things might be discouraged from giving something a go because somebody else tells them "you know, for every successful person you see, there are 10 people who failed", when the truth is not nearly that simple or dismal.
- jaredtn 6y ago
  Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Agree with the message, but “consistently” means 5-10 years, not just a few months of concerted effort.
  - throwaway2048 6y ago
    At certain timescales this idea becomes essentially unfalsifiable, meanwhile people flush 10 years of their life down the drain.
    - tomhoward 6y ago
      Nobody is advocating wasting 10 years doing something without any indication of progress towards success. Obviously people should be looking for signs of progress and/or success every step of the way. There are plenty of ways of doing this well before someone does or doesn’t “make it”. This concern people keep expressing over wasting many years of life for zero benefit has little basis in reality, as long as people are able to gauge their progress and build optionality into their life.
- thomasahle 6y ago
  > Anyone who produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, ... etc, will find success eventually. What data do you have to back this up? > The people who make it big do all those things. That's a very different claim.
  - tomhoward 6y ago
    I really don't get what it is about my comment that's counter to general understanding of how people achieve positive outcomes. It's pretty well established that people who stick at a pursuit for long enough, learn as they go and respond to their audience will find success, if they don't quit first. > What data do you have to back this up? If your primary concern was precise data, you'd first be confronting my parent commenter, who claimed, without any evidence whatsoever: "For every ten people who did this [i.e., posted three quality videos a week, for 1-2 years], maybe one made it big". That's quite plainly an implausible statistic. I get that it's made for rhetorical effect, not precision, but surely that commenter carries the primary burden of evidence for some validity of their position. My position is based on what is generally accepted by anyone with experience in entrepreneurial or creative endeavours. > That's a very different claim. How so?
    - brabel 6y ago
      > That's a very different claim. > How so? That explains your reaction: you don't seem to understand the difference between "all people who get big do x" and "all people who do x get big". There's plenty of evidence showing that doing what successful people do does not guarantee success.
      - tomhoward 6y ago
        To break down my comment: Anyone who: - produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, - pays good attention to how their content is received, - continues to adapt their content to what they find the audience wants, - and is attentive in engaging with their audience's messages/comments/etc, will find success eventually. When all parts of this are met, there is no material difference between "all people who get big do x" and "all people who do x get big". I understand that not all people will be able to do all of these things to a sufficient level, quickly enough to satisfy their desire for success, and those people will quit before they make it. But I maintain that for media content creation (unlike, say professional sport), people who really want to find success in that field will be able to work out how to do it given enough persistence and discernment over enough time.
- jamesgeck0 6y ago
  It really depends. This guy posted 20,000 videos over eight years before people noticed. https://theoutline.com/post/7709/meet-the-man-who-has-spent-the-past-years-making-over-19000-videos-of-himself-feeding-cats?zd=2&zi=yzm3ynk7 https://theoutline.com/post/7709/meet-the-man-who-has-spent-...
  - tomhoward 6y ago
    It seems this person is not seeking to build a big audience at all. He just loves cats, and posts videos of them as part of his daily routine. If he was trying to build a big audience he'd operate very differently.
  - akudha 6y ago
    This is not a good example. He doesn't even put proper titles for his videos, how are people supposed to find them in an ocean of billions of videos? He seems to be doing it for his own satisfaction.
    - misotaur 6y ago
      Nevermind that most of his videos are about a minute long and yt doesnt really like that.
michaelbrave 6y ago
There is luck sure, but there is no luck without the work first.
jameshush 6y ago
Here's the thing though, ten people DO NOT do this. Most people give up after one video. Or never post anything to begin with. I pretty much gave up for 6 months after trying to make one video and got back on the horse recently a few months ago. Even if the grind doesn't "pay off" in views, it's paying off in other ways for me regardless. I'm way better at speaking in front of a camera now than a few months ago. My writing ability has improved drastically because I'm writing 1-2 scripts a week now. I've gotten a lot better at video editing, which I always enjoyed a bit anyway. You can't really lose. Even if you never become "middleclass YouTube famous" you're still building skills that are handy in other fields (especially writing and communication ones!)

tomhoward 6y ago

This seems to imply that success in this field is randomly assigned rather than being attained through persistence and attention to the audience. For anyone who presumes this to be true, it will be inevitable. Anyone who produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, pays good attention to how their content is received, continues to adapt their content to what they find the audience wants, and is attentive in engaging with their audience's messages/comments/etc, will find success eventually. The people who make it big do all those things. Those who don't have generally gotten discouraged too early, before they've put enough effort and persistence into those key ingredients. Sure, natural charisma helps, and can make it look like some creators just "got lucky" with huge growth from the start. But plenty of creators started out seeming awkward and unpolished early on, but over time were able to improve their delivery style and other aspects of their production, and hit it big eventually. (Edited to clarify position.)

rdgthree 6y ago
Agreed, but I don't think you're necessarily in disagreement with your parent. Some people struggle to understand how to improve on their weaknesses and think they're paying attention to how their content is received, adapting to their audience, etc, but in reality they're missing the mark by a mile. In this sense it's essentially entrepreneurship. The founders who are simply not doing a good job don't always realize it. Some people will continue their efforts for years without knowing it's their own inability holding them back.
- tomhoward 6y ago
  The parent commenter wasn't clear about whether they meant success comes mostly down to random chance vs persistence and responsiveness to the audience. I've expanded (and edited) my comment to try and clarify what I think is an important distinction. But to be clear, I highly doubt it's true that for every creator who builds a big audience, there's another nine (or even one or two) who put in the same effort, persistence and attention to their audience, over at least 2 years, and get nowhere. I can believe that many start out then get discouraged and give up early, because they don't know how to gauge their results and improve their product, but that's a different issue.
  - rdgthree 6y ago
    I agree largely, I'm just not sure that insufficient effort/persistence so heavily outweighs low quality content as a reason for failure over time. I'd imagine there are actually a large amount of "zombie" YouTubers that consistently put out videos that very few people (relatively) end up watching. A lot of startups end up in this "zombie" state rather than shutting down[0]. So I agree most probably just get discouraged and give up early. But I can easily see 9 long-time "zombie" YouTubers for every channel with a big audience. [0]https://yclist.com/ https://yclist.com/
    - tomhoward 6y ago
      I guess it's that kind of topic where once you discuss it enough you reach consensus on a position that is neither particularly controversial nor insightful :) I gather the people who've found my earlier comments disagreeable are assuming I'm advocating that people blindly persist at something for countless years, even if they see no signs of success, which of course I'm not. My point assumes that by doing something with sufficient dedication for a sufficient amount of time, you'll learn the necessary skills, including learning how to learn, and learning how to gauge success, and learning when it's best to quit and try something else. I actually don't think it's likely there's huge numbers of "zombie" YouTubers, slogging away for years with no success. Sure, plenty of stuff gets posted that gets very few views, but not by people who are serious about making a career of it. Career-focused people either see signs of success or realise they need to find a new career path. As for the YC list, I know a lot about that list as my company is on it, as are several others run by people I know. There aren't many actual zombie companies on that list. There are companies that didn't become unicorns, but did become solid small-medium businesses that employ a decent number of people and provide important services to their customers, and will likely eventually be acquired for a decent return to the founders and investors. And there are others that have been abandoned, but provided valuable lessons to their founders, which helped equip them for greater success in the next stages of their career. My opinions expressed above are from having spent 10+ years running and observing others running startups, and by seeing what persistence and long-term success look like. I've never seen persistence work out badly for people, as long as they are adequately able to gauge their success along the way. I get saddened at the thought that people with the potential to do great things might be discouraged from giving something a go because somebody else tells them "you know, for every successful person you see, there are 10 people who failed", when the truth is not nearly that simple or dismal.
jaredtn 6y ago
Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Agree with the message, but “consistently” means 5-10 years, not just a few months of concerted effort.
- throwaway2048 6y ago
  At certain timescales this idea becomes essentially unfalsifiable, meanwhile people flush 10 years of their life down the drain.
  - tomhoward 6y ago
    Nobody is advocating wasting 10 years doing something without any indication of progress towards success. Obviously people should be looking for signs of progress and/or success every step of the way. There are plenty of ways of doing this well before someone does or doesn’t “make it”. This concern people keep expressing over wasting many years of life for zero benefit has little basis in reality, as long as people are able to gauge their progress and build optionality into their life.
thomasahle 6y ago
> Anyone who produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, ... etc, will find success eventually. What data do you have to back this up? > The people who make it big do all those things. That's a very different claim.
- tomhoward 6y ago
  I really don't get what it is about my comment that's counter to general understanding of how people achieve positive outcomes. It's pretty well established that people who stick at a pursuit for long enough, learn as they go and respond to their audience will find success, if they don't quit first. > What data do you have to back this up? If your primary concern was precise data, you'd first be confronting my parent commenter, who claimed, without any evidence whatsoever: "For every ten people who did this [i.e., posted three quality videos a week, for 1-2 years], maybe one made it big". That's quite plainly an implausible statistic. I get that it's made for rhetorical effect, not precision, but surely that commenter carries the primary burden of evidence for some validity of their position. My position is based on what is generally accepted by anyone with experience in entrepreneurial or creative endeavours. > That's a very different claim. How so?
  - brabel 6y ago
    > That's a very different claim. > How so? That explains your reaction: you don't seem to understand the difference between "all people who get big do x" and "all people who do x get big". There's plenty of evidence showing that doing what successful people do does not guarantee success.
    - tomhoward 6y ago
      To break down my comment: Anyone who: - produces content consistently for a long enough period of time, - pays good attention to how their content is received, - continues to adapt their content to what they find the audience wants, - and is attentive in engaging with their audience's messages/comments/etc, will find success eventually. When all parts of this are met, there is no material difference between "all people who get big do x" and "all people who do x get big". I understand that not all people will be able to do all of these things to a sufficient level, quickly enough to satisfy their desire for success, and those people will quit before they make it. But I maintain that for media content creation (unlike, say professional sport), people who really want to find success in that field will be able to work out how to do it given enough persistence and discernment over enough time.
jamesgeck0 6y ago
It really depends. This guy posted 20,000 videos over eight years before people noticed. https://theoutline.com/post/7709/meet-the-man-who-has-spent-the-past-years-making-over-19000-videos-of-himself-feeding-cats?zd=2&zi=yzm3ynk7 https://theoutline.com/post/7709/meet-the-man-who-has-spent-...
- tomhoward 6y ago
  It seems this person is not seeking to build a big audience at all. He just loves cats, and posts videos of them as part of his daily routine. If he was trying to build a big audience he'd operate very differently.
- akudha 6y ago
  This is not a good example. He doesn't even put proper titles for his videos, how are people supposed to find them in an ocean of billions of videos? He seems to be doing it for his own satisfaction.
  - misotaur 6y ago
    Nevermind that most of his videos are about a minute long and yt doesnt really like that.

michaelbrave 6y ago

There is luck sure, but there is no luck without the work first.

jameshush 6y ago

Here's the thing though, ten people DO NOT do this. Most people give up after one video. Or never post anything to begin with. I pretty much gave up for 6 months after trying to make one video and got back on the horse recently a few months ago. Even if the grind doesn't "pay off" in views, it's paying off in other ways for me regardless. I'm way better at speaking in front of a camera now than a few months ago. My writing ability has improved drastically because I'm writing 1-2 scripts a week now. I've gotten a lot better at video editing, which I always enjoyed a bit anyway. You can't really lose. Even if you never become "middleclass YouTube famous" you're still building skills that are handy in other fields (especially writing and communication ones!)