Yeah, in such a situation I'd agree that Europe would likely remain neutral, assuming there was essentially no provocation. But I would consider that extremely

Yeah, in such a situation I'd agree that Europe would likely remain neutral, assuming there was essentially no provocation. But I would consider that extremely unlikely, for a variety of reasons. Here's what I would consider a more likely road to global war: * Russia exerts increased influence on Belarus, turning it into a defacto puppet state * Russia initiates another grey zone conflict, this time in Eastern Poland, in an attempt to improve the lines of communication between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia * While some nations like the UK urge for a diplomatic solution, Poland acts aggressively, striking targets in Belarus to cut off foreign fighters * Russia denounces Polish aggression and builds up forces in Belarus and Kaliningrad, during which Poland shoots down a Russian MiG that strayed into Polish airspace * Increased Russian presence leads to incidents along the border. Lithuania begins mobilization, and the other Baltic states soon after * In retaliation for the MiG shot down, Russia shoots down what it thinks is a Polish F-16, but it actually is Belgian, deployed as a part of the Baltic Air Policing * NATO forces reinforce Poland and Lithuania, begin to limited airstrikes and special forces raids on Belarussian targets. * Belarus declares war but Russia officially doesn't, but keeps its troops forward deployed in the country * NATO forces begin an invasion plan, routing Belarussian forces. Russian troops remain where they are * Russia enters the war, ostensibly defending their troops stationed abroad. Begins a strike of a variety of strategic targets throughout Europe using ballistic and cruise missiles * And so on...