4 ms·

It's a problem. One that requires a lockdown? Doubtful. We will find out soon, since these protests were vastly larger than the ones against the lockdown (yo

by JPKab 6y ago

It's a problem. One that requires a lockdown? Doubtful. We will find out soon, since these protests were vastly larger than the ones against the lockdown (you remember how the media talked about how dangerous those ones were due to covid19, but immediately ignored that when the protest was something that they personally support). Yeah, the virus doesn't care whether your protest is journalist approved. I know you know that, and I'm wondering if you think the protests are going to cause a large spike in infections?

perl4ever 6y ago
98% of new cases in the US yesterday were outside of the five boroughs of NYC.[1&4] Right now, most of NY is reopening[2]. In the meantime, California and Texas are seeing significantly more daily new cases than NY state; CA more than double[3] Internationally, Brazil[1] has started regularly producing daily new case counts that are ~50% more than the US (Brazil is a smaller country that so far has had fewer cases and deaths). I don't expect anyone will be able to definitively identify the effect of protests in the context of imminent or continuing reopening of much of the country. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [2] https://forward.ny.gov/ https://forward.ny.gov/ [3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
- JPKab 6y ago
  What's the positive cases per test rate? I'm assuming that is going up, which is bad. The one admittedly lagging indicator that I'm watching is hospitalized cases. So far that's ok, and ideally you could possibly have an increase in positive cases throughout a population without more hospitalizations if high risk people isolate themselves. But yeah, hope it doesn't go sideways.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    The site I posted indicates that there are almost 20 tests in the US for every new case, while there was only one test for every three cases in Brazil. Probably the latter ratio is not very representative without averaging over a longer period of time. However, it seems clear from the total test counts that Brazil has had more than an order of magnitude fewer tests per capita than in the US, and I am reasonably certain that the numbers indicate they are overwhelmed and the reported cases are the ones that they cannot attribute to anything else, so probably undercounted. Here's something to think about - total cases for the world were up about 2% yesterday. US cases were up a little over 20K. If US cases were increasing at the average rate of the whole world, it would have been closer to 40K. Similar story in Europe, but more so; there more than half of the new cases are in Russia. So considering Western Europe, the epidemic has been greatly reduced and is growing elsewhere. What's happening very quickly is that Asia and South America are now having a disproportionate amount of the new cases, even with China, Japan and S. Korea reporting almost none. And the spread is happening in countries where the testing capacity is relatively low. If the lockdowns had had no effect, I can't see how to explain the dramatic shift over the last month in where the new cases are. The general reaction of authorities to the epidemic seems to me very similar to an immune reaction. You have a strong initial reaction to an infection, and then it moderates. Earlier is better, but either too much or too little can kill you. Once it is slowed, you can go back to a relatively normal metabolism.

by JPKab 6y ago

perl4ever 6y ago

98% of new cases in the US yesterday were outside of the five boroughs of NYC.[1&4] Right now, most of NY is reopening[2]. In the meantime, California and Texas are seeing significantly more daily new cases than NY state; CA more than double[3] Internationally, Brazil[1] has started regularly producing daily new case counts that are ~50% more than the US (Brazil is a smaller country that so far has had fewer cases and deaths). I don't expect anyone will be able to definitively identify the effect of protests in the context of imminent or continuing reopening of much of the country. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [2] https://forward.ny.gov/ https://forward.ny.gov/ [3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

JPKab 6y ago
What's the positive cases per test rate? I'm assuming that is going up, which is bad. The one admittedly lagging indicator that I'm watching is hospitalized cases. So far that's ok, and ideally you could possibly have an increase in positive cases throughout a population without more hospitalizations if high risk people isolate themselves. But yeah, hope it doesn't go sideways.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  The site I posted indicates that there are almost 20 tests in the US for every new case, while there was only one test for every three cases in Brazil. Probably the latter ratio is not very representative without averaging over a longer period of time. However, it seems clear from the total test counts that Brazil has had more than an order of magnitude fewer tests per capita than in the US, and I am reasonably certain that the numbers indicate they are overwhelmed and the reported cases are the ones that they cannot attribute to anything else, so probably undercounted. Here's something to think about - total cases for the world were up about 2% yesterday. US cases were up a little over 20K. If US cases were increasing at the average rate of the whole world, it would have been closer to 40K. Similar story in Europe, but more so; there more than half of the new cases are in Russia. So considering Western Europe, the epidemic has been greatly reduced and is growing elsewhere. What's happening very quickly is that Asia and South America are now having a disproportionate amount of the new cases, even with China, Japan and S. Korea reporting almost none. And the spread is happening in countries where the testing capacity is relatively low. If the lockdowns had had no effect, I can't see how to explain the dramatic shift over the last month in where the new cases are. The general reaction of authorities to the epidemic seems to me very similar to an immune reaction. You have a strong initial reaction to an infection, and then it moderates. Earlier is better, but either too much or too little can kill you. Once it is slowed, you can go back to a relatively normal metabolism.